AFL · ROUND 4 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Essendon
Sun 5 Apr 2026, 7:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WB by 34
WB to win, 94% chance
WB 94%6% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 34
HIT Actual margin 34 · 0.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 28.0 | - | - | 100% | 95% | 74% | 38% | 11% | 35.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 26.3 | - | - | 99% | 91% | 63% | 26% | 6% | - |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 25.1 | - | - | 99% | 87% | 54% | 19% | 4% | 22.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | FPR | 24.8 | - | - | 99% | 86% | 51% | 17% | 3% | 36.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 19.5 | - | - | 87% | 48% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | BPL | 19.5 | - | - | 88% | 49% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | RR | 19.2 | - | - | 86% | 46% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 34.0 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 18.6 | - | - | 83% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 26.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 18.5 | - | - | 82% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 17.7 | - | - | 77% | 32% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 17.5 | - | - | 76% | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 15.1 | - | - | 54% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Oskar Baker | WL | 14.7 | - | - | 50% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 14.6 | - | - | 49% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Rhylee West | HFFL | 13.8 | - | - | 40% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 13.7 | - | - | 40% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 12.1 | - | - | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 11.7 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 10.7 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 10.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 10.0 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Arthur Jones | INT | 9.7 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 9.1 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darcy Parish | RR | 24.7 | - | - | 99% | 86% | 51% | 17% | 3% | 19.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 23.2 | - | - | 97% | 77% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 19.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 22.6 | - | - | 96% | 73% | 33% | 8% | 1% | 37.0 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 22.1 | - | - | 95% | 70% | 30% | 6% | 1% | 30.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 21.4 | - | - | 94% | 65% | 25% | 5% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 20.5 | - | - | 91% | 57% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 17.0 | - | - | 72% | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 16.9 | - | - | 71% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 15.8 | - | - | 62% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 15.2 | - | - | 56% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 14.1 | - | - | 44% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | FPR | 14.1 | - | - | 44% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 13.9 | - | - | 42% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 13.9 | - | - | 42% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 13.9 | - | - | 42% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 11.8 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFR | 11.7 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 10.7 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Matt Guelfi | INT | 10.4 | - | - | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 10.3 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 9.6 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 9.5 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Archer May | CHF | 8.9 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |