AFL · ROUND 4 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Essendon
Sun 5 Apr 2026, 7:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WB by 34
WB to win, 94% chance
WB 94%6% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 34
HIT Actual margin 34 · 0.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim English | RK | 109 | - | - | 97% | 91% | 81% | 66% | 48% | 51 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 107 | - | - | 96% | 90% | 80% | 64% | 45% | 130 |
| Ed Richards | R | 96 | - | - | 90% | 78% | 62% | 44% | 26% | - |
| Matthew Kennedy | FPR | 96 | - | - | 89% | 78% | 62% | 43% | 26% | 109 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 88 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 71 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 76 | - | - | 60% | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 87 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 72 | - | - | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 94 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 70 | - | - | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 67 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 70 | - | - | 50% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 96 |
| Lachie Jaques | BPL | 69 | - | - | 49% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 67 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 68 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 83 |
| Rhylee West | HFFL | 67 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 57 |
| Ryley Sanders | RR | 65 | - | - | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 109 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 64 | - | - | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 68 |
| Oskar Baker | WL | 62 | - | - | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 94 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 60 | - | - | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 46 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 56 | - | - | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 26 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 76 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 46 | - | - | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 59 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 45 | - | - | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 28 |
| Arthur Jones | INT | 44 | - | - | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 62 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 44 | - | - | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 52 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 42 | - | - | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 41 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | R | 95 | - | - | 88% | 77% | 60% | 41% | 24% | 122 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 92 | - | - | 85% | 72% | 54% | 35% | 20% | 71 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 90 | - | - | 82% | 67% | 49% | 31% | 17% | 56 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 84 | - | - | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 136 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 78 | - | - | 64% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 80 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 78 | - | - | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 52 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 50 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 66 | - | - | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 88 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 63 | - | - | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 82 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 62 | - | - | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 56 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFR | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 45 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 58 | - | - | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 71 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 18 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 56 | - | - | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 38 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 56 | - | - | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 33 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 56 | - | - | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 51 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 99 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 101 |
| Thomas Edwards | FPR | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 52 |
| Matt Guelfi | INT | 48 | - | - | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 18 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 47 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 58 |
| Archer May | CHF | 45 | - | - | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 47 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 41 | - | - | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 21 |