AFL · ROUND 4 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Essendon
Sun 5 Apr 2026, 7:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WB by 34
WB to win, 94% chance
WB 94%6% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 34
HIT Actual margin 34 · 0.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim English | RK | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 47% | 31% | 19% | 3.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 5.3 | - | - | 77% | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8.0 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 5.3 | - | - | 77% | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 10.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 60% | 42% | 27% | 16% | 6.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 5.1 | - | - | 74% | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 3.0 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 4.6 | - | - | 68% | 49% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 5.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 4.5 | - | - | 66% | 47% | 30% | 17% | 9% | 8.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 44% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 45% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 4.0 |
| Oskar Baker | WL | 4.2 | - | - | 60% | 41% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 9.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | BPL | 4.1 | - | - | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 6% | 4.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | FPR | 4.1 | - | - | 59% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 5.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 3.9 | - | - | 54% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 6.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | - |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 5.0 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Rhylee West | HFFL | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | RR | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 6.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 2.7 | - | - | 30% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 2.7 | - | - | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Arthur Jones | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben McKay | FB | 5.3 | - | - | 77% | 61% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 3.0 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 5.3 | - | - | 78% | 62% | 44% | 29% | 17% | 11.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 4.9 | - | - | 71% | 53% | 36% | 22% | 12% | 7.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 54% | 37% | 22% | 12% | 3.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 4.8 | - | - | 71% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 12% | 12.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 44% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 5.0 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFR | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 4.0 | - | - | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 5% | 5.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 3.9 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 6.0 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 3.9 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 9.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 3.3 | - | - | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 2.8 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 12.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | FPR | 2.8 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 2.7 | - | - | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 2.6 | - | - | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Matt Guelfi | INT | 2.6 | - | - | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Archer May | CHF | 2.5 | - | - | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 2.3 | - | - | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |