AFL · ROUND 4 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Essendon
Sun 5 Apr 2026, 7:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WB by 34
WB to win, 94% chance
WB 94%6% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 34
HIT Actual margin 34 · 0.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 5.4 | - | - | 90% | 78% | 62% | 45% | 29% | 3.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | FPR | 5.0 | - | - | 88% | 74% | 57% | 39% | 24% | 1.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 3.8 | - | - | 74% | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | - |
| Rhylee West | HFFL | 3.4 | - | - | 65% | 44% | 25% | 12% | 6% | 1.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 3.0 | - | - | 58% | 36% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 2.8 | - | - | 54% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 6.0 |
| Arthur Jones | INT | 2.7 | - | - | 51% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | RR | 2.6 | - | - | 48% | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 2.6 | - | - | 48% | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 2.3 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | BPL | 2.0 | - | - | 31% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Oskar Baker | WL | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 1.6 | - | - | 22% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 1.6 | - | - | 22% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 1.6 | - | - | 23% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 1.5 | - | - | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 1.5 | - | - | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jye Caldwell | C | 6.0 | - | - | 94% | 85% | 72% | 56% | 40% | 5.0 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 4.6 | - | - | 84% | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 7.0 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 4.5 | - | - | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 17% | 6.0 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 4.1 | - | - | 78% | 59% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 1.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 3.4 | - | - | 66% | 44% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 3.1 | - | - | 60% | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 0.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 3.0 | - | - | 57% | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Archer May | CHF | 2.8 | - | - | 53% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 2.5 | - | - | 45% | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 2.4 | - | - | 43% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Matt Guelfi | INT | 2.4 | - | - | 43% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 2.3 | - | - | 41% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 6.0 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 36% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFR | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | FPR | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 1.5 | - | - | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |