AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Carlton
Thu 9 Apr 2026, 7:10pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 14
ADE to win, 69% chance
ADE 69%31% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 13.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 24.8 / 24.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.2 / 4.0 | 3.2 / 0.0 | 94 / 70 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 24.0 / 21.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 6.2 / 3.0 | 1.2 / 2.0 | 91 / 61 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 22.8 / 26.0 | 0.6 / 1.0 | 4.4 / 1.0 | 5.8 / 3.0 | 99 / 85 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 21.6 / 25.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.6 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 4.0 | 81 / 85 |
| James Peatling | R | 20.5 / 20.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 1.0 | 4.1 / 4.0 | 83 / 66 |
| Josh Rachele | INT | 20.1 / 26.0 | 1.1 / 4.0 | 3.6 / 2.0 | 2.6 / 5.0 | 79 / 124 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 19.6 / 29.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 2.6 / 1.0 | 5.0 / 6.0 | 81 / 93 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 18.4 / 12.0 | 0.6 / 1.0 | 2.5 / 2.0 | 3.9 / 2.0 | 72 / 49 |
| Izak Rankine | FPR | 17.6 / 22.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 | 3.4 / 3.0 | 2.7 / 7.0 | 75 / 111 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 16.1 / 21.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 4.8 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 4.0 | 70 / 74 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 15.5 / 16.0 | 0.6 / 2.0 | 3.5 / 2.0 | 3.4 / 6.0 | 67 / 84 |
| Mitchell Hinge | INT | 15.5 / 10.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 1.0 | 2.3 / 1.0 | 62 / 34 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 15.3 / 18.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 4.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 | 61 / 57 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 14.8 / 16.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.2 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 3.0 | 62 / 54 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 14.7 / 20.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 2.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 60 / 64 |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 14.6 / 16.0 | 1.0 / 3.0 | 3.3 / 2.0 | 2.5 / 4.0 | 66 / 78 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | FF | 13.5 / 14.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 5.6 / 6.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 76 / 73 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 12.8 / 10.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 2.2 / 3.0 | 2.6 / 5.0 | 73 / 84 |
| Taylor Walker | CHF | 12.1 / 14.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 5.3 / 6.0 | 1.3 / 3.0 | 65 / 68 |
| Nick Murray | FB | 11.6 / 8.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.2 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 1.0 | 48 / 27 |
| Zac Taylor | HFFR | 10.4 / 11.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 2.7 / 3.0 | 2.2 / 3.0 | 50 / 49 |
| James Borlase | BPL | 9.2 / 7.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 3.4 / 1.0 | 1.5 / 3.0 | 39 / 35 |
| Finnbar Maley | INT | 8.5 / 7.0 | 0.6 / 1.0 | 2.9 / 3.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 46 / 45 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 27.1 / 29.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 2.0 | 4.4 / 8.0 | 97 / 99 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 23.9 / 23.0 | 0.2 / 1.0 | 4.4 / 0.0 | 4.5 / 7.0 | 90 / 80 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 23.5 / 29.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 2.6 / 2.0 | 5.1 / 9.0 | 88 / 105 |
| Nic Newman | HBFR | 21.4 / 19.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 7.5 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 3.0 | 92 / 70 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 20.0 / 15.0 | 0.2 / 1.0 | 5.1 / 4.0 | 2.4 / 5.0 | 78 / 73 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 19.6 / 19.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 3.0 / 0.0 | 2.1 / 3.0 | 71 / 57 |
| Oliver Florent | BPR | 19.2 / 25.0 | 0.1 / 1.0 | 5.0 / 3.0 | 2.1 / 4.0 | 74 / 97 |
| Elijah Hollands | FPL | 18.7 / 16.0 | 0.7 / 1.0 | 4.7 / 2.0 | 2.1 / 5.0 | 76 / 77 |
| Nick Haynes | CHB | 17.7 / 18.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 7.6 / 8.0 | 1.7 / 4.0 | 76 / 84 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 17.7 / 15.0 | 0.8 / 1.0 | 3.5 / 0.0 | 2.2 / 6.0 | 70 / 64 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 16.8 / 18.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.3 / 3.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 67 / 64 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 14.9 / 13.0 | 0.2 / 1.0 | 4.0 / 2.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 61 / 48 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 13.4 / 13.0 | 1.1 / 2.0 | 3.7 / 3.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 58 / 59 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 13.0 / 7.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 | 6.5 / 3.0 | 1.7 / 4.0 | 78 / 45 |
| Francis Evans | HFFL | 12.9 / 15.0 | 1.1 / 1.0 | 3.3 / 1.0 | 2.7 / 6.0 | 59 / 69 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 12.9 / 10.0 | 0.7 / 2.0 | 4.4 / 3.0 | 1.3 / 4.0 | 57 / 65 |
| Jordan Boyd | BPL | 12.8 / 13.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 3.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 53 / 51 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 11.9 / 16.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 | 2.3 / 7.0 | 73 / 104 |
| Lewis Young | FB | 10.9 / 10.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 | 46 / 28 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 10.1 / 9.0 | 1.1 / 0.0 | 4.7 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 4.0 | 52 / 44 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 9.7 / 9.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 3.0 | 1.6 / 0.0 | 44 / 32 |
| Wade Derksen | INT | 9.1 / 10.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 2.5 / 4.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 43 / 34 |
| Hudson O'Keeffe | INT | 7.7 / 7.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 3.3 / 0.0 | 1.3 / 1.0 | 45 / 29 |