AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Carlton
Thu 9 Apr 2026, 7:10pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 14
ADE to win, 69% chance
ADE 69%31% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 13.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 24.8 | - | - | 99% | 86% | 51% | 17% | 3% | 24.0 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 24.0 | - | - | 98% | 82% | 45% | 13% | 2% | 21.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 22.8 | - | - | 97% | 75% | 35% | 8% | 1% | 26.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 21.6 | - | - | 94% | 66% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 25.0 |
| James Peatling | R | 20.5 | - | - | 91% | 58% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Josh Rachele | INT | 20.1 | - | - | 90% | 54% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 26.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 19.6 | - | - | 88% | 50% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 29.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 18.4 | - | - | 82% | 39% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Izak Rankine | FPR | 17.6 | - | - | 77% | 32% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 16.1 | - | - | 64% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 15.5 | - | - | 59% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Mitchell Hinge | INT | 15.5 | - | - | 58% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 15.3 | - | - | 56% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 14.8 | - | - | 51% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 14.7 | - | - | 50% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 14.6 | - | - | 49% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | FF | 13.5 | - | - | 38% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 12.8 | - | - | 31% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Taylor Walker | CHF | 12.1 | - | - | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Nick Murray | FB | 11.6 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Zac Taylor | HFFR | 10.4 | - | - | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| James Borlase | BPL | 9.2 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Finnbar Maley | INT | 8.5 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 27.1 | - | - | 100% | 94% | 69% | 32% | 8% | 29.0 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 23.9 | - | - | 98% | 82% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 23.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 23.5 | - | - | 98% | 79% | 40% | 11% | 2% | 29.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFR | 21.4 | - | - | 94% | 65% | 25% | 5% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 20.0 | - | - | 90% | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 19.6 | - | - | 88% | 49% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPR | 19.2 | - | - | 86% | 46% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 25.0 |
| Elijah Hollands | FPL | 18.7 | - | - | 83% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Nick Haynes | CHB | 17.7 | - | - | 77% | 33% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 17.7 | - | - | 78% | 33% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 16.8 | - | - | 70% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 14.9 | - | - | 53% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 13.4 | - | - | 36% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 13.0 | - | - | 33% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFL | 12.9 | - | - | 31% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 12.9 | - | - | 31% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Jordan Boyd | BPL | 12.8 | - | - | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 11.9 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Lewis Young | FB | 10.9 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 10.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 9.7 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Wade Derksen | INT | 9.1 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Hudson O'Keeffe | INT | 7.7 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |