AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Carlton
Thu 9 Apr 2026, 7:10pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 14
ADE to win, 69% chance
ADE 69%31% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 13.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 99 | - | - | 92% | 82% | 66% | 48% | 30% | 85 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 94 | - | - | 87% | 75% | 58% | 39% | 22% | 70 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 91 | - | - | 84% | 69% | 51% | 33% | 18% | 61 |
| James Peatling | R | 83 | - | - | 73% | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 66 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 81 | - | - | 69% | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 93 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 81 | - | - | 70% | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 85 |
| Josh Rachele | INT | 79 | - | - | 66% | 47% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 124 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | FF | 76 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 73 |
| Izak Rankine | FPR | 75 | - | - | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 111 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 73 | - | - | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 84 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 72 | - | - | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 49 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 70 | - | - | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 74 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 67 | - | - | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 84 |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 66 | - | - | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 78 |
| Taylor Walker | CHF | 65 | - | - | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 68 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 62 | - | - | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 54 |
| Mitchell Hinge | INT | 62 | - | - | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 34 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 61 | - | - | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 57 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 60 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 64 |
| Zac Taylor | HFFR | 50 | - | - | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 49 |
| Nick Murray | FB | 48 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 27 |
| Finnbar Maley | INT | 46 | - | - | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 45 |
| James Borlase | BPL | 39 | - | - | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 35 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 97 | - | - | 90% | 79% | 62% | 44% | 26% | 99 |
| Nic Newman | HBFR | 92 | - | - | 86% | 72% | 55% | 36% | 20% | 70 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 90 | - | - | 82% | 67% | 49% | 31% | 16% | 80 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 88 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 46% | 29% | 15% | 105 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 78 | - | - | 64% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 45 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 78 | - | - | 64% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 73 |
| Elijah Hollands | FPL | 76 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 77 |
| Nick Haynes | CHB | 76 | - | - | 61% | 43% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 84 |
| Oliver Florent | BPR | 74 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 97 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 73 | - | - | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 104 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 71 | - | - | 52% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 57 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 70 | - | - | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 64 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 67 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 64 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 61 | - | - | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 48 |
| Francis Evans | HFFL | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 69 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 58 | - | - | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 59 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 65 |
| Jordan Boyd | BPL | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 51 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 52 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 44 |
| Lewis Young | FB | 46 | - | - | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 28 |
| Hudson O'Keeffe | INT | 45 | - | - | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 29 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 44 | - | - | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 32 |
| Wade Derksen | INT | 43 | - | - | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 34 |