AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Carlton
Thu 9 Apr 2026, 7:10pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 14
ADE to win, 69% chance
ADE 69%31% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 13.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Thilthorpe | FF | 1.8 | - | - | 83% | 53% | 26% | 10% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Taylor Walker | CHF | 1.7 | - | - | 82% | 51% | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Josh Rachele | INT | 1.1 | - | - | 68% | 31% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 1.0 | - | - | 64% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Izak Rankine | FPR | 1.0 | - | - | 64% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 0.6 | - | - | 47% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Finnbar Maley | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 43% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 44% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| James Peatling | R | 0.6 | - | - | 46% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 0.6 | - | - | 42% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Zac Taylor | HFFR | 0.5 | - | - | 41% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 0.3 | - | - | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 0.3 | - | - | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 0.2 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| James Borlase | BPL | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mitchell Hinge | INT | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nick Murray | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry McKay | FF | 2.2 | - | - | 89% | 65% | 38% | 19% | 8% | 1.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 1.1 | - | - | 67% | 31% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 1.1 | - | - | 67% | 31% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFL | 1.1 | - | - | 67% | 30% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Hudson O'Keeffe | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 58% | 21% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 0.8 | - | - | 54% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Elijah Hollands | FPL | 0.7 | - | - | 51% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 0.7 | - | - | 50% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 0.7 | - | - | 51% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 0.6 | - | - | 44% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 47% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Wade Derksen | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 47% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 0.4 | - | - | 36% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 0.2 | - | - | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 0.2 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jordan Boyd | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nick Haynes | CHB | 0.1 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Lewis Young | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |