AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Carlton
Thu 9 Apr 2026, 7:10pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 14
ADE to win, 69% chance
ADE 69%31% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 13.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 6.2 | - | - | 86% | 74% | 58% | 42% | 28% | 3.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 6.2 | - | - | 87% | 74% | 59% | 43% | 29% | 4.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | FF | 5.6 | - | - | 81% | 66% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 6.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 5.6 | - | - | 81% | 66% | 50% | 34% | 21% | 1.0 |
| Taylor Walker | CHF | 5.3 | - | - | 77% | 61% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 6.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 42% | 26% | 15% | 2.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 4.8 | - | - | 71% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 12% | 1.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 4.4 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 1.0 |
| Nick Murray | FB | 4.2 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 1.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 3.7 | - | - | 50% | 31% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Mitchell Hinge | INT | 3.7 | - | - | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Josh Rachele | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Izak Rankine | FPR | 3.4 | - | - | 44% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 3.0 |
| James Borlase | BPL | 3.4 | - | - | 45% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 3.3 | - | - | 43% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 2.0 |
| James Peatling | R | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Finnbar Maley | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Zac Taylor | HFFR | 2.7 | - | - | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 2.6 | - | - | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 2.5 | - | - | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 2.2 | - | - | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Haynes | CHB | 7.6 | - | - | 94% | 88% | 77% | 64% | 49% | 8.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFR | 7.5 | - | - | 94% | 87% | 76% | 62% | 48% | 1.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 6.5 | - | - | 89% | 77% | 63% | 47% | 32% | 3.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 5.3 | - | - | 78% | 61% | 44% | 28% | 17% | 3.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 5.1 | - | - | 74% | 57% | 39% | 25% | 14% | 4.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPR | 5.0 | - | - | 74% | 56% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 3.0 |
| Lewis Young | FB | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 53% | 36% | 22% | 12% | 1.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 4.7 | - | - | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 11% | 2.0 |
| Elijah Hollands | FPL | 4.7 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 2.0 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 0.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 4.4 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Jordan Boyd | BPL | 3.8 | - | - | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 3.7 | - | - | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFL | 3.3 | - | - | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Hudson O'Keeffe | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 3.0 | - | - | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 2.6 | - | - | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Wade Derksen | INT | 2.5 | - | - | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 2.0 | - | - | 15% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |