Adelaide Crows v Carlton

Thu 9 Apr 2026, 7:10pm ACST (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIP

ADE by 14

ADE to win, 69% chance

ADE 69%31% CAR

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

ADE by 28

HIT Actual margin 28 · 13.7 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Adelaide Crows

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	3+	4+	5+	6+	7+	ACTUAL
Jordan Dawson	C	5.8	-	-	93%	83%	69%	52%	36%	3.0
Sam Berry	RR	5.0	-	-	87%	73%	56%	38%	24%	6.0
James Peatling	R	4.1	-	-	78%	59%	40%	24%	12%	4.0
Jake Soligo	INT	3.9	-	-	75%	55%	36%	20%	10%	2.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	FPL	3.4	-	-	66%	44%	25%	13%	6%	6.0
Rory Laird	HBFL	3.2	-	-	61%	39%	21%	10%	4%	0.0
Izak Rankine	FPR	2.7	-	-	52%	30%	14%	6%	2%	7.0
Josh Rachele	INT	2.6	-	-	49%	27%	13%	5%	2%	5.0
Lachlan McAndrew	RK	2.6	-	-	47%	25%	12%	5%	2%	5.0
Ben Keays	HFFL	2.5	-	-	45%	24%	11%	4%	1%	4.0
Mitchell Hinge	INT	2.3	-	-	39%	19%	8%	3%	1%	1.0
Zac Taylor	HFFR	2.2	-	-	38%	18%	7%	2%	1%	3.0
Brayden Cook	WR	2.0	-	-	32%	14%	5%	2%	0%	0.0
Isaac Cumming	WL	2.0	-	-	33%	15%	6%	2%	0%	4.0
Max Michalanney	BPR	2.0	-	-	32%	14%	5%	2%	0%	3.0
Wayne Milera	HBFR	2.0	-	-	32%	14%	5%	2%	0%	4.0
Finnbar Maley	INT	1.9	-	-	29%	12%	4%	1%	0%	2.0
Luke Nankervis	INT	1.9	-	-	30%	13%	4%	1%	0%	2.0
Riley Thilthorpe	FF	1.8	-	-	26%	10%	3%	1%	0%	1.0
James Borlase	BPL	1.5	-	-	19%	7%	2%	0%	0%	3.0
Taylor Walker	CHF	1.3	-	-	15%	4%	1%	0%	0%	3.0
Josh Worrell	CHB	1.2	-	-	13%	4%	1%	0%	0%	2.0
Nick Murray	FB	1.2	-	-	11%	3%	1%	0%	0%	1.0

Carlton

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	3+	4+	5+	6+	7+	ACTUAL
Patrick Cripps	C	5.1	-	-	88%	74%	57%	39%	25%	9.0
Adam Cerra	INT	4.5	-	-	83%	66%	47%	30%	17%	7.0
Sam Walsh	R	4.4	-	-	82%	64%	45%	28%	16%	8.0
Nic Newman	HBFR	3.1	-	-	60%	38%	21%	10%	4%	3.0
Francis Evans	HFFL	2.7	-	-	51%	28%	14%	6%	2%	6.0
Oliver Hollands	WL	2.4	-	-	42%	21%	9%	3%	1%	5.0
Marc Pittonet	RK	2.3	-	-	39%	19%	8%	3%	1%	7.0
Zac Williams	INT	2.2	-	-	37%	18%	7%	2%	1%	6.0
Elijah Hollands	FPL	2.1	-	-	34%	15%	6%	2%	0%	5.0
Jagga Smith	RR	2.1	-	-	34%	16%	6%	2%	0%	3.0
Oliver Florent	BPR	2.1	-	-	35%	16%	6%	2%	1%	4.0
Ben Ainsworth	HFFR	1.9	-	-	28%	12%	4%	1%	0%	1.0
Lachlan Cowan	HBFL	1.9	-	-	30%	13%	5%	1%	0%	2.0
Brodie Kemp	FPR	1.8	-	-	26%	10%	3%	1%	0%	4.0
Wade Derksen	INT	1.8	-	-	26%	11%	4%	1%	0%	1.0
Harry McKay	FF	1.7	-	-	25%	10%	3%	1%	0%	4.0
Jordan Boyd	BPL	1.7	-	-	24%	9%	3%	1%	0%	1.0
Matthew Carroll	WR	1.7	-	-	25%	10%	3%	1%	0%	1.0
Nick Haynes	CHB	1.7	-	-	23%	9%	3%	1%	0%	4.0
Talor Byrne	INT	1.6	-	-	22%	8%	2%	1%	0%	0.0
Hudson O'Keeffe	INT	1.3	-	-	15%	4%	1%	0%	0%	1.0
Mitch McGovern	CHF	1.3	-	-	15%	5%	1%	0%	0%	4.0
Lewis Young	FB	1.0	-	-	9%	2%	0%	0%	0%	1.0