AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Collingwood v Fremantle
Fri 10 Apr 2026, 7:10pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 4
FRE to win, 58% chance
COL 42%58% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 2.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | RR | 113 | - | - | 98% | 94% | 86% | 73% | 56% | 96 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 99 | - | - | 92% | 82% | 67% | 48% | 30% | 76 |
| Darcy Cameron | INT | 90 | - | - | 82% | 68% | 49% | 31% | 17% | 108 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 84 | - | - | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 97 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 80 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 59 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WR | 78 | - | - | 64% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 52 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 77 | - | - | 64% | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 81 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 74 | - | - | 58% | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 101 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 72 | - | - | 53% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 88 |
| Ned Long | R | 72 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 61 |
| Patrick Lipinski | INT | 69 | - | - | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 61 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFR | 67 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 80 |
| Jordan De Goey | CHF | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 17 |
| Isaac Quaynor | INT | 65 | - | - | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 110 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 60 | - | - | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 74 |
| Jamie Elliott | FPL | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 49 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 56 | - | - | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 25 |
| Angus Anderson | C | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 92 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 51 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 66 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 50 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 55 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 50 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 72 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 48 | - | - | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 77 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 47 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 66 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | R | 96 | - | - | 89% | 77% | 60% | 42% | 24% | 85 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 95 | - | - | 89% | 77% | 60% | 41% | 24% | 86 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 92 | - | - | 85% | 71% | 53% | 35% | 19% | 131 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 88 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 93 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 84 | - | - | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 64 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 77 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 121 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 75 | - | - | 59% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 59 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 74 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 51 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 70 | - | - | 49% | 31% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 58 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 70 | - | - | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 17 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 69 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 71 |
| Corey Wagner | WR | 64 | - | - | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 60 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | WL | 63 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 77 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 61 | - | - | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 56 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 60 | - | - | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 36 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 60 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 82 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 31 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 52 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 9 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 51 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 58 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 48 | - | - | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 46 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 48 | - | - | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 54 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 48 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 68 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 43 | - | - | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 59 |