AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Collingwood v Fremantle
Fri 10 Apr 2026, 7:10pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 4
FRE to win, 58% chance
COL 42%58% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 2.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Elliott | FPL | 1.9 | - | - | 85% | 56% | 29% | 12% | 4% | 0.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 1.7 | - | - | 81% | 50% | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 1.2 | - | - | 69% | 32% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 1.1 | - | - | 68% | 31% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 0.7 | - | - | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | CHF | 0.7 | - | - | 49% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nick Daicos | RR | 0.7 | - | - | 52% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Angus Anderson | C | 0.6 | - | - | 44% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 44% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ned Long | R | 0.4 | - | - | 31% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 0.4 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 0.4 | - | - | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WR | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 0.2 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 0.1 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Treacy | FF | 1.9 | - | - | 84% | 56% | 29% | 12% | 4% | 0.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 1.7 | - | - | 82% | 51% | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 1.6 | - | - | 81% | 49% | 23% | 8% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 1.1 | - | - | 67% | 30% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 1.0 | - | - | 64% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 0.9 | - | - | 58% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 0.8 | - | - | 56% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.6 | - | - | 45% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 0.5 | - | - | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 42% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.4 | - | - | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 31% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Corey Wagner | WR | 0.2 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | WL | 0.2 | - | - | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 0.2 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 0.0 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | -0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |