AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Collingwood v Fremantle
Fri 10 Apr 2026, 7:10pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 4
FRE to win, 58% chance
COL 42%58% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 2.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 5.6 | - | - | 81% | 66% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 9.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 47% | 31% | 19% | 3.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | INT | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 10.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 5.1 | - | - | 74% | 57% | 39% | 25% | 14% | 8.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 5.1 | - | - | 75% | 58% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 7.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFR | 5.1 | - | - | 75% | 58% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 7.0 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 4.7 | - | - | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 6.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WR | 4.7 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 1.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 45% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 5.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 4.3 | - | - | 62% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 8.0 |
| Nick Daicos | RR | 4.3 | - | - | 62% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | FPL | 4.2 | - | - | 61% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 1.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | INT | 4.1 | - | - | 59% | 40% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | INT | 4.1 | - | - | 59% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 1.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 4.1 | - | - | 58% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 7.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 4.0 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 4.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 5.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | CHF | 3.0 | - | - | 36% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Angus Anderson | C | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 2.8 | - | - | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 2.6 | - | - | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Ned Long | R | 2.4 | - | - | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 2.4 | - | - | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 5.9 | - | - | 84% | 71% | 54% | 38% | 25% | 10.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 5.5 | - | - | 79% | 64% | 46% | 31% | 18% | 4.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 4.6 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 3.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 4.6 | - | - | 68% | 49% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 3.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 4.6 | - | - | 67% | 49% | 31% | 18% | 10% | 7.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 4.5 | - | - | 66% | 47% | 30% | 17% | 9% | 3.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 4.3 | - | - | 62% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 5.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 4.1 | - | - | 58% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 5.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 3.7 | - | - | 51% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Corey Wagner | WR | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 47% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 3.2 | - | - | 39% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 3.0 | - | - | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 7.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | WL | 2.6 | - | - | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 2.5 | - | - | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 2.3 | - | - | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 2.3 | - | - | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 1.8 | - | - | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 1.8 | - | - | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |