AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Collingwood v Fremantle
Fri 10 Apr 2026, 7:10pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 4
FRE to win, 58% chance
COL 42%58% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 2.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ned Long | R | 5.5 | - | - | 91% | 80% | 65% | 48% | 32% | 5.0 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 4.0 | - | - | 76% | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 3.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 3.7 | - | - | 71% | 50% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 7.0 |
| Nick Daicos | RR | 3.6 | - | - | 69% | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 1.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 3.4 | - | - | 66% | 45% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 8.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 65% | 43% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 4.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WR | 2.6 | - | - | 49% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | CHF | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 7.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFR | 2.0 | - | - | 31% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 2.0 | - | - | 31% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | FPL | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 1.6 | - | - | 23% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Angus Anderson | C | 1.5 | - | - | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 1.2 | - | - | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 1.0 | - | - | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 1.0 | - | - | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 5.1 | - | - | 88% | 75% | 58% | 40% | 25% | 9.0 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 4.7 | - | - | 85% | 69% | 51% | 33% | 20% | 3.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 3.9 | - | - | 75% | 55% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 9.0 |
| Jaeger O'Meara | WL | 3.3 | - | - | 63% | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 3.2 | - | - | 61% | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 5.0 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 2.9 | - | - | 56% | 34% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Corey Wagner | WR | 2.8 | - | - | 53% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.6 | - | - | 49% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 2.5 | - | - | 45% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 2.4 | - | - | 43% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 2.0 | - | - | 31% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 1.8 | - | - | 28% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 1.6 | - | - | 22% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 1.5 | - | - | 19% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 1.5 | - | - | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 1.5 | - | - | 19% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 1.5 | - | - | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 1.1 | - | - | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |