AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Essendon v Melbourne
Sat 11 Apr 2026, 12:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
MEL by 30
MEL to win, 91% chance
ESS 9%91% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ESS by 45
MISS Actual margin 45 · 74.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 25.4 / 42.0 | 0.1 / 1.0 | 5.3 / 15.0 | 1.9 / 0.0 | 92 / 164 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 25.3 / 34.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 6.0 | 3.9 / 1.0 | 93 / 106 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 24.7 / 31.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 4.1 / 5.0 | 4.4 / 2.0 | 96 / 109 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 23.6 / 13.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.0 / 1.0 | 2.5 / 2.0 | 86 / 44 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 23.1 / 16.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 0.0 | 5.2 / 4.0 | 95 / 57 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 20.5 / 16.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 3.8 / 6.0 | 4.2 / 1.0 | 80 / 68 |
| Jordan Ridley | BPL | 18.5 / 26.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.6 / 11.0 | 1.1 / 1.0 | 76 / 106 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 17.4 / 21.0 | 0.3 / 2.0 | 5.4 / 7.0 | 2.1 / 2.0 | 68 / 95 |
| Jaxon Prior | INT | 17.2 / 17.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.7 / 10.0 | 1.9 / 3.0 | 69 / 89 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 16.1 / 29.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 3.4 / 3.0 | 2.2 / 0.0 | 65 / 85 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 15.3 / 13.0 | 0.7 / 1.0 | 3.5 / 4.0 | 2.7 / 1.0 | 64 / 58 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 14.9 / 22.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 4.7 / 12.0 | 1.6 / 1.0 | 58 / 102 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 14.3 / 18.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 6.2 / 11.0 | 1.5 / 0.0 | 57 / 85 |
| Sullivan Robey | INT | 14.2 / 9.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 2.9 / 3.0 | 1.5 / 2.0 | 53 / 36 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 13.0 / 15.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 3.3 / 3.0 | 2.0 / 3.0 | 54 / 62 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFR | 12.5 / 27.0 | 1.1 / 0.0 | 4.6 / 8.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 63 / 103 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 12.2 / 19.0 | 0.9 / 2.0 | 2.9 / 2.0 | 2.6 / 3.0 | 56 / 74 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 11.0 / 18.0 | 1.2 / 1.0 | 5.1 / 8.0 | 1.4 / 4.0 | 62 / 108 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 10.2 / 23.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.8 / 11.0 | 0.9 / 2.0 | 47 / 98 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.2 / 12.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 4.4 / 3.0 | 1.2 / 1.0 | 55 / 62 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 10.0 / 8.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 2.9 / 3.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 60 / 41 |
| Archer May | FPR | 9.1 / 4.0 | 0.8 / 2.0 | 2.7 / 4.0 | 2.3 / 2.0 | 48 / 39 |
| Thomas Edwards | INT | 8.8 / 8.0 | 0.8 / 2.0 | 3.2 / 3.0 | 1.8 / 6.0 | 49 / 61 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Salem | BPR | 24.3 / 12.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.0 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 90 / 46 |
| Jack Steele | C | 23.3 / 28.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 4.5 / 5.0 | 6.4 / 5.0 | 98 / 102 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 21.1 / 28.0 | 1.3 / 2.0 | 3.4 / 4.0 | 4.2 / 8.0 | 84 / 124 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 20.4 / 22.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 5.4 / 1.0 | 2.3 / 2.0 | 109 / 108 |
| Caleb Windsor | HBFL | 18.2 / 7.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.2 / 4.0 | 2.6 / 3.0 | 68 / 45 |
| Xavier Lindsay | WR | 17.6 / 16.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 0.0 | 2.1 / 2.0 | 64 / 54 |
| Harvey Langford | WL | 17.2 / 17.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 3.5 / 4.0 | 1.9 / 3.0 | 64 / 70 |
| Ed Langdon | RR | 16.4 / 13.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 4.3 / 3.0 | 2.2 / 3.0 | 65 / 52 |
| Kade Chandler | HFFR | 15.1 / 14.0 | 0.7 / 1.0 | 3.3 / 3.0 | 3.7 / 1.0 | 64 / 51 |
| Tom Sparrow | R | 14.9 / 18.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 1.0 | 3.7 / 6.0 | 59 / 78 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 14.1 / 22.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 3.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 | 58 / 66 |
| Jai Culley | INT | 13.8 / 10.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 1.0 | 2.5 / 2.0 | 58 / 34 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 13.7 / 18.0 | -0.0 / 0.0 | 6.3 / 10.0 | 1.4 / 2.0 | 56 / 84 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 13.7 / 15.0 | -0.0 / 0.0 | 5.6 / 10.0 | 1.1 / 2.0 | 54 / 74 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 13.1 / 14.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 3.3 / 3.0 | 2.3 / 2.0 | 54 / 62 |
| Bayley Fritsch | HFFL | 13.0 / 13.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 4.9 / 2.0 | 1.5 / 2.0 | 65 / 53 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 12.7 / 14.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.5 / 3.0 | 1.5 / 3.0 | 49 / 58 |
| Daniel Turner | INT | 11.9 / 17.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.3 / 7.0 | 1.4 / 2.0 | 49 / 74 |
| Harrison Petty | BPL | 10.7 / 7.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 4.4 / 5.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 53 / 41 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 10.7 / 9.0 | 1.3 / 0.0 | 4.2 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 0.0 | 55 / 29 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 10.5 / 7.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 2.7 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 44 / 35 |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 9.7 / 6.0 | 1.6 / 1.0 | 4.0 / 3.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 54 / 30 |
| Jake Melksham | FPL | 9.6 / 5.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 1.0 | 1.6 / 1.0 | 52 / 16 |