AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Essendon v Melbourne
Sat 11 Apr 2026, 12:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
MEL by 30
MEL to win, 91% chance
ESS 9%91% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ESS by 45
MISS Actual margin 45 · 74.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 25.4 | - | - | 99% | 88% | 56% | 20% | 4% | 42.0 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 25.3 | - | - | 99% | 88% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 34.0 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 24.7 | - | - | 99% | 85% | 50% | 17% | 3% | 31.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 23.6 | - | - | 98% | 80% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 13.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 23.1 | - | - | 97% | 77% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 16.0 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 20.5 | - | - | 91% | 57% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Jordan Ridley | BPL | 18.5 | - | - | 82% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 26.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 17.4 | - | - | 75% | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | INT | 17.2 | - | - | 73% | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 16.1 | - | - | 64% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 29.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 15.3 | - | - | 56% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 14.9 | - | - | 52% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 14.3 | - | - | 46% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | INT | 14.2 | - | - | 45% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 13.0 | - | - | 33% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFR | 12.5 | - | - | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 27.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 12.2 | - | - | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 11.0 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 10.2 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.2 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 10.0 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Archer May | FPR | 9.1 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | INT | 8.8 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Salem | BPR | 24.3 | - | - | 98% | 83% | 47% | 14% | 2% | 12.0 |
| Jack Steele | C | 23.3 | - | - | 97% | 78% | 39% | 10% | 1% | 28.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 21.1 | - | - | 93% | 62% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 28.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 20.4 | - | - | 91% | 56% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | HBFL | 18.2 | - | - | 80% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | WR | 17.6 | - | - | 77% | 32% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WL | 17.2 | - | - | 73% | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Ed Langdon | RR | 16.4 | - | - | 67% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Kade Chandler | HFFR | 15.1 | - | - | 55% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | R | 14.9 | - | - | 52% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 14.1 | - | - | 44% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Jai Culley | INT | 13.8 | - | - | 41% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 13.7 | - | - | 40% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 13.7 | - | - | 40% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 13.1 | - | - | 33% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | HFFL | 13.0 | - | - | 33% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 12.7 | - | - | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Daniel Turner | INT | 11.9 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Harrison Petty | BPL | 10.7 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 10.7 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 10.5 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 9.7 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Jake Melksham | FPL | 9.6 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |