AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Essendon v Melbourne
Sat 11 Apr 2026, 12:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
MEL by 30
MEL to win, 91% chance
ESS 9%91% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ESS by 45
MISS Actual margin 45 · 74.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | R | 96 | - | - | 89% | 77% | 61% | 42% | 25% | 109 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 95 | - | - | 88% | 76% | 59% | 40% | 23% | 57 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 93 | - | - | 86% | 73% | 56% | 37% | 21% | 106 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 92 | - | - | 85% | 72% | 54% | 35% | 20% | 164 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 86 | - | - | 77% | 60% | 42% | 25% | 12% | 44 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 80 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 68 |
| Jordan Ridley | BPL | 76 | - | - | 60% | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 106 |
| Jaxon Prior | INT | 69 | - | - | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 89 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 95 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 65 | - | - | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 85 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 64 | - | - | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 58 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFR | 63 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 103 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 62 | - | - | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 108 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 60 | - | - | 31% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 41 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 58 | - | - | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 102 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 85 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 56 | - | - | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 74 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 62 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 62 |
| Sullivan Robey | INT | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 36 |
| Thomas Edwards | INT | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 61 |
| Archer May | FPR | 48 | - | - | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 39 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 47 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 98 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 109 | - | - | 97% | 91% | 81% | 66% | 48% | 108 |
| Jack Steele | C | 98 | - | - | 91% | 81% | 66% | 47% | 29% | 102 |
| Christian Salem | BPR | 90 | - | - | 83% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 17% | 46 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 84 | - | - | 75% | 57% | 39% | 22% | 11% | 124 |
| Caleb Windsor | HBFL | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 45 |
| Bayley Fritsch | HFFL | 65 | - | - | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 53 |
| Ed Langdon | RR | 65 | - | - | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 52 |
| Harvey Langford | WL | 64 | - | - | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 70 |
| Kade Chandler | HFFR | 64 | - | - | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 51 |
| Xavier Lindsay | WR | 64 | - | - | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 54 |
| Tom Sparrow | R | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 78 |
| Jai Culley | INT | 58 | - | - | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 34 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 58 | - | - | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 66 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 56 | - | - | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 84 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 29 |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 30 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 54 | - | - | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 62 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 54 | - | - | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 74 |
| Harrison Petty | BPL | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 41 |
| Jake Melksham | FPL | 52 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 16 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 58 |
| Daniel Turner | INT | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 74 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 44 | - | - | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 35 |