AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Essendon v Melbourne
Sat 11 Apr 2026, 12:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
MEL by 30
MEL to win, 91% chance
ESS 9%91% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ESS by 45
MISS Actual margin 45 · 74.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 1.9 | - | - | 85% | 57% | 30% | 13% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 1.2 | - | - | 69% | 32% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFR | 1.1 | - | - | 68% | 31% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 0.9 | - | - | 58% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Archer May | FPR | 0.8 | - | - | 55% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | INT | 0.8 | - | - | 56% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 0.7 | - | - | 51% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 44% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 0.5 | - | - | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 0.5 | - | - | 40% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 0.4 | - | - | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 0.4 | - | - | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 0.3 | - | - | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 0.2 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 0.2 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jordan Ridley | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayley Fritsch | HFFL | 1.9 | - | - | 85% | 57% | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Jake Melksham | FPL | 1.7 | - | - | 81% | 50% | 24% | 9% | 3% | 0.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 1.6 | - | - | 80% | 48% | 22% | 8% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 1.3 | - | - | 72% | 37% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 1.3 | - | - | 74% | 39% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Kade Chandler | HFFR | 0.7 | - | - | 51% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Harrison Petty | BPL | 0.6 | - | - | 43% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ed Langdon | RR | 0.5 | - | - | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WL | 0.4 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | HBFL | 0.3 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Steele | C | 0.3 | - | - | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jai Culley | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | R | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Christian Salem | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Daniel Turner | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | WR | 0.1 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | -0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | -0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |