AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Essendon v Melbourne
Sat 11 Apr 2026, 12:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
MEL by 30
MEL to win, 91% chance
ESS 9%91% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ESS by 45
MISS Actual margin 45 · 74.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Ridley | BPL | 6.6 | - | - | 89% | 78% | 64% | 48% | 34% | 11.0 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 6.2 | - | - | 86% | 74% | 58% | 42% | 28% | 11.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 5.8 | - | - | 83% | 69% | 52% | 36% | 23% | 11.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | INT | 5.7 | - | - | 82% | 68% | 51% | 35% | 22% | 10.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 5.4 | - | - | 79% | 63% | 46% | 30% | 18% | 7.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 5.3 | - | - | 77% | 61% | 44% | 28% | 16% | 15.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 5.1 | - | - | 75% | 58% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 8.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 5.0 | - | - | 73% | 56% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 1.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 4.7 | - | - | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 12.0 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFR | 4.6 | - | - | 68% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 10% | 8.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 4.4 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3.0 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 4.1 | - | - | 59% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 5.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 3.9 | - | - | 55% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 0.0 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 3.8 | - | - | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 6.0 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 6.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 3.4 | - | - | 43% | 25% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | INT | 3.2 | - | - | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Archer May | FPR | 2.7 | - | - | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Lever | FB | 6.3 | - | - | 87% | 75% | 59% | 43% | 29% | 10.0 |
| Christian Salem | BPR | 6.0 | - | - | 85% | 72% | 56% | 40% | 26% | 1.0 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 5.6 | - | - | 81% | 66% | 49% | 34% | 21% | 10.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 5.4 | - | - | 79% | 63% | 46% | 30% | 18% | 1.0 |
| Daniel Turner | INT | 5.3 | - | - | 77% | 61% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 7.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | HFFL | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 12% | 2.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 4.5 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3.0 |
| Jack Steele | C | 4.5 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 5.0 |
| Harrison Petty | BPL | 4.4 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 5.0 |
| Ed Langdon | RR | 4.3 | - | - | 62% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 4.2 | - | - | 60% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 4.0 | - | - | 57% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | WR | 3.7 | - | - | 51% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 0.0 |
| Jake Melksham | FPL | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WL | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 3.4 | - | - | 45% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Kade Chandler | HFFR | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | HBFL | 3.2 | - | - | 40% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | R | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Jai Culley | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 2.7 | - | - | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |