AFL · ROUND 5 · BAROSSA PARK
GWS GIANTS v Richmond
Sun 12 Apr 2026, 2:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GWS by 34
GWS to win, 94% chance
GWS 94%6% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 56
HIT Actual margin 56 · 21.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Callaghan | R | 30.1 | - | - | 100% | 98% | 85% | 53% | 21% | 37.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 30.0 | - | - | 100% | 98% | 84% | 53% | 20% | 31.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 27.9 | - | - | 100% | 95% | 74% | 37% | 11% | 31.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 27.3 | - | - | 100% | 94% | 69% | 32% | 9% | 35.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 20.1 | - | - | 90% | 54% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 29.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 19.4 | - | - | 87% | 47% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 19.3 | - | - | 86% | 47% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Connor Idun | FB | 18.3 | - | - | 81% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 17.8 | - | - | 78% | 33% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Brent Daniels | CHF | 16.2 | - | - | 65% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 16.1 | - | - | 64% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 16.0 | - | - | 64% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 15.7 | - | - | 61% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 15.6 | - | - | 60% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | INT | 14.2 | - | - | 45% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| James Leake | INT | 14.2 | - | - | 45% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jack Buckley | BPR | 13.5 | - | - | 38% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFL | 13.2 | - | - | 34% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 11.3 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Josaia Delana | INT | 10.5 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Toby Bedford | HFFR | 10.5 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FPL | 10.2 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Oliver Hannaford | INT | 10.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPR | 9.7 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 9.5 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 8.9 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 25.4 | - | - | 99% | 88% | 56% | 20% | 4% | 26.0 |
| Tim Taranto | RR | 24.8 | - | - | 99% | 86% | 51% | 17% | 3% | 25.0 |
| Jack Ross | CHF | 22.1 | - | - | 95% | 70% | 30% | 6% | 1% | 19.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 22.1 | - | - | 95% | 70% | 29% | 6% | 1% | 23.0 |
| Dion Prestia | C | 20.8 | - | - | 92% | 60% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Sam Banks | WL | 20.5 | - | - | 91% | 57% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Luke Trainor | INT | 18.4 | - | - | 82% | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | BPL | 17.7 | - | - | 77% | 32% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 17.4 | - | - | 75% | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 17.2 | - | - | 73% | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 17.2 | - | - | 73% | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 14.3 | - | - | 46% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 14.0 | - | - | 43% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Liam Fawcett | FF | 13.8 | - | - | 41% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | RK | 13.8 | - | - | 41% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | INT | 13.8 | - | - | 41% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Zane Peucker | INT | 13.8 | - | - | 41% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Noah Balta | BPR | 13.2 | - | - | 34% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 13.0 | - | - | 32% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Nathan Broad | HBFL | 12.9 | - | - | 31% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Sam Lalor | R | 12.4 | - | - | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 9.5 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 9.2 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | INT | 9.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 8.7 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 8.2 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |