AFL · ROUND 5 · BAROSSA PARK
GWS GIANTS v Richmond
Sun 12 Apr 2026, 2:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GWS by 34
GWS to win, 94% chance
GWS 94%6% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 56
HIT Actual margin 56 · 21.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 7.5 | - | - | 94% | 87% | 76% | 62% | 48% | 7.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 7.3 | - | - | 93% | 85% | 74% | 59% | 45% | 4.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 7.3 | - | - | 93% | 85% | 74% | 59% | 44% | 4.0 |
| Connor Idun | FB | 7.2 | - | - | 93% | 84% | 72% | 58% | 43% | 4.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 7.1 | - | - | 92% | 84% | 72% | 57% | 42% | 9.0 |
| Jack Buckley | BPR | 6.7 | - | - | 90% | 80% | 66% | 50% | 35% | 6.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 5.7 | - | - | 82% | 67% | 50% | 34% | 21% | 4.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FPL | 5.3 | - | - | 78% | 61% | 44% | 29% | 17% | 6.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | INT | 5.1 | - | - | 75% | 58% | 41% | 26% | 15% | 4.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 4.7 | - | - | 69% | 51% | 33% | 20% | 10% | 6.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPR | 4.5 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 4.4 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 4.3 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 4.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 4.3 | - | - | 62% | 43% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 0.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 3.7 | - | - | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 3.7 | - | - | 51% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 3.4 | - | - | 45% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | - |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFL | 3.3 | - | - | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 3.2 | - | - | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 3.0 |
| James Leake | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Oliver Hannaford | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Brent Daniels | CHF | 2.7 | - | - | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 2.7 | - | - | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Josaia Delana | INT | 2.6 | - | - | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Toby Bedford | HFFR | 2.3 | - | - | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 2.1 | - | - | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | CHB | 7.0 | - | - | 92% | 82% | 69% | 54% | 40% | 4.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 6.0 | - | - | 85% | 72% | 55% | 39% | 26% | 9.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | BPL | 6.0 | - | - | 85% | 71% | 55% | 39% | 25% | 5.0 |
| Nathan Broad | HBFL | 5.6 | - | - | 81% | 66% | 50% | 34% | 21% | 5.0 |
| Noah Balta | BPR | 5.4 | - | - | 78% | 62% | 45% | 29% | 18% | 8.0 |
| Sam Banks | WL | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 54% | 37% | 22% | 12% | 3.0 |
| Luke Trainor | INT | 4.7 | - | - | 69% | 50% | 33% | 20% | 10% | 0.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 4.4 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 5.0 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 3.8 | - | - | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Jack Ross | CHF | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 5.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 5.0 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 47% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Sam Lalor | R | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Dion Prestia | C | 3.4 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 6.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 43% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | - |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 3.2 | - | - | 40% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Tim Taranto | RR | 3.2 | - | - | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 39% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 3.0 | - | - | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 2.9 | - | - | 34% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Liam Fawcett | FF | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | RK | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Zane Peucker | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 2.5 | - | - | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 17% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |