AFL · ROUND 5 · NORWOOD OVAL
Geelong Cats v West Coast Eagles
Sun 12 Apr 2026, 12:00pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 40
GEE to win, 96% chance
GEE 96%4% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 46
HIT Actual margin 46 · 5.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 29.8 | - | - | 100% | 98% | 84% | 51% | 19% | 34.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 27.8 | - | - | 100% | 95% | 73% | 36% | 10% | 34.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 22.6 | - | - | 96% | 73% | 33% | 8% | 1% | 19.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 21.4 | - | - | 94% | 65% | 24% | 5% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 20.8 | - | - | 92% | 60% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 20.2 | - | - | 90% | 54% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 30.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 17.8 | - | - | 78% | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 28.0 |
| Jack Bowes | WL | 17.5 | - | - | 76% | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 17.3 | - | - | 74% | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | INT | 16.8 | - | - | 71% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFL | 16.0 | - | - | 63% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | HFFL | 16.0 | - | - | 64% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPR | 13.9 | - | - | 42% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | FF | 13.5 | - | - | 38% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Mitch Knevitt | INT | 13.4 | - | - | 36% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 12.9 | - | - | 32% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | INT | 12.7 | - | - | 29% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Sam De Koning | BPL | 12.4 | - | - | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 12.0 | - | - | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | HBFR | 11.3 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 11.0 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jack Martin | FPL | 10.7 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 10.3 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Shannon Neale | CHF | 9.3 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Oliver Henry | FPR | 9.2 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 8.8 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley Reid | RR | 22.9 | - | - | 97% | 76% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 22.0 |
| Tim Kelly | HFFL | 21.3 | - | - | 94% | 64% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 20.7 | - | - | 92% | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 20.2 | - | - | 90% | 54% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | INT | 19.7 | - | - | 88% | 50% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 28.0 |
| Jack Graham | C | 19.4 | - | - | 87% | 48% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 19.3 | - | - | 87% | 47% | 12% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Elijah Hewett | HFFR | 18.2 | - | - | 80% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 17.7 | - | - | 77% | 33% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Deven Robertson | R | 16.4 | - | - | 66% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Brady Hough | HBFL | 15.0 | - | - | 54% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 14.6 | - | - | 49% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 14.6 | - | - | 49% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Malakai Champion | INT | 13.8 | - | - | 41% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Harry Schoenberg | FPL | 13.7 | - | - | 40% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 12.9 | - | - | 31% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Tylar Young | FB | 12.5 | - | - | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | BPR | 12.2 | - | - | 25% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Matt Flynn | RK | 12.0 | - | - | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 11.3 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Sandy Brock | CHB | 10.4 | - | - | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | FPR | 9.9 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | INT | 9.6 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | INT | 9.4 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Matthew Owies | INT | 9.4 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Archer Reid | CHF | 7.9 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |