AFL · ROUND 5 · NORWOOD OVAL
Geelong Cats v West Coast Eagles
Sun 12 Apr 2026, 12:00pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 40
GEE to win, 96% chance
GEE 96%4% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 46
HIT Actual margin 46 · 5.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Cameron | FF | 2.4 | - | - | 91% | 69% | 43% | 22% | 10% | 3.0 |
| Shannon Neale | CHF | 1.8 | - | - | 84% | 54% | 27% | 11% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Oliver Henry | FPR | 1.5 | - | - | 77% | 43% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | HFFL | 1.4 | - | - | 74% | 39% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPL | 1.3 | - | - | 72% | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | - |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 1.2 | - | - | 70% | 34% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 0.9 | - | - | 60% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jack Bowes | WL | 0.7 | - | - | 52% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 46% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 0.5 | - | - | 40% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 0.4 | - | - | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Mitch Knevitt | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| James Worpel | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 0.3 | - | - | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 0.3 | - | - | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPR | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | INT | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam De Koning | BPL | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Waterman | FF | 2.1 | - | - | 88% | 62% | 35% | 16% | 6% | 1.0 |
| Archer Reid | CHF | 1.0 | - | - | 63% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | FPR | 1.0 | - | - | 62% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Matthew Owies | INT | 0.8 | - | - | 55% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | INT | 0.7 | - | - | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | INT | 0.7 | - | - | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 0.6 | - | - | 44% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Malakai Champion | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 42% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 0.5 | - | - | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Elijah Hewett | HFFR | 0.4 | - | - | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Harry Schoenberg | FPL | 0.4 | - | - | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Deven Robertson | R | 0.3 | - | - | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tim Kelly | HFFL | 0.3 | - | - | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 0.2 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Graham | C | 0.2 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 0.2 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Matt Flynn | RK | 0.2 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tom McCarthy | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Brady Hough | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | BPR | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sandy Brock | CHB | -0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tylar Young | FB | -0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |