AFL · ROUND 5 · NORWOOD OVAL
Geelong Cats v West Coast Eagles
Sun 12 Apr 2026, 12:00pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 40
GEE to win, 96% chance
GEE 96%4% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 46
HIT Actual margin 46 · 5.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Atkins | RR | 6.2 | - | - | 94% | 86% | 74% | 58% | 42% | 11.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.7 | - | - | 85% | 69% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 5.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 4.4 | - | - | 81% | 64% | 45% | 28% | 16% | 2.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 4.3 | - | - | 81% | 63% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 5.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 4.0 | - | - | 76% | 57% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 7.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | HFFL | 3.2 | - | - | 61% | 39% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 59% | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Mitch Knevitt | INT | 3.0 | - | - | 57% | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | - |
| Jack Bowes | WL | 2.6 | - | - | 49% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | HBFR | 2.2 | - | - | 38% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPL | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 2.0 | - | - | 34% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Oliver Henry | FPR | 2.0 | - | - | 31% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPR | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFL | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 1.9 | - | - | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Shannon Neale | CHF | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | FF | 1.8 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | INT | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Sam De Koning | BPL | 1.4 | - | - | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 0.9 | - | - | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Graham | C | 5.8 | - | - | 93% | 83% | 68% | 52% | 36% | 6.0 |
| Deven Robertson | R | 3.7 | - | - | 71% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3.0 |
| Elijah Hewett | HFFR | 3.6 | - | - | 70% | 48% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 4.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 3.6 | - | - | 70% | 49% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 3.2 | - | - | 61% | 39% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 5.0 |
| Tim Kelly | HFFL | 3.0 | - | - | 58% | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Matt Flynn | RK | 2.6 | - | - | 47% | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | - |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 2.3 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Harry Schoenberg | FPL | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | INT | 2.3 | - | - | 42% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Brady Hough | HBFL | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 31% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Matthew Owies | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Bo Allan | WR | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 1.7 | - | - | 23% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Archer Reid | CHF | 1.6 | - | - | 23% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | BPR | 1.6 | - | - | 22% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Malakai Champion | INT | 1.5 | - | - | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jobe Shanahan | FPR | 1.2 | - | - | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 1.0 | - | - | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Sandy Brock | CHB | 1.0 | - | - | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tylar Young | FB | 0.9 | - | - | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |