AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
Sat 11 Apr 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WB by 3
WB to win, 57% chance
HAW 43%57% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 40
MISS Actual margin 40 · 43.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 26.1 / 28.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 3.8 / 3.0 | 4.1 / 4.0 | 91 / 98 |
| Josh Ward | R | 23.4 / 14.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 2.0 | 3.7 / 1.0 | 83 / 47 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 23.1 / 24.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 4.5 / 7.0 | 1.9 / 0.0 | 85 / 86 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 20.7 / 24.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 6.8 / 13.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 80 / 115 |
| Dylan Moore | FPL | 20.1 / 23.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 | 4.5 / 2.0 | 2.8 / 2.0 | 81 / 79 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 20.1 / 26.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.4 / 10.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 | 76 / 96 |
| Conor Nash | INT | 19.4 / 18.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 2.3 / 4.0 | 4.7 / 4.0 | 74 / 65 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 19.3 / 23.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.0 / 13.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 75 / 104 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 19.1 / 28.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 | 4.2 / 9.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 76 / 113 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 18.9 / 21.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 8.0 | 2.1 / 4.0 | 66 / 102 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 18.5 / 17.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.0 / 3.0 | 3.6 / 4.0 | 68 / 68 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 18.0 / 23.0 | 1.1 / 1.0 | 4.2 / 6.0 | 2.3 / 3.0 | 76 / 96 |
| Josh Weddle | BPL | 16.0 / 15.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 5.2 / 3.0 | 2.0 / 4.0 | 66 / 72 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 15.9 / 25.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.0 / 10.0 | 2.0 / 6.0 | 63 / 125 |
| Flynn Perez | WR | 14.3 / 13.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 3.0 | 53 / 46 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 13.9 / 12.0 | 1.5 / 1.0 | 2.8 / 2.0 | 2.2 / 3.0 | 62 / 57 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 13.0 / 16.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 3.0 | 3.1 / 5.0 | 83 / 98 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 11.6 / 8.0 | 2.6 / 3.0 | 5.1 / 4.0 | 1.6 / 1.0 | 64 / 59 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 10.9 / 12.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.4 / 9.0 | 0.9 / 2.0 | 44 / 61 |
| Mabior Chol | FF | 10.5 / 1.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 4.1 / 0.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 | 59 / 7 |
| Sam Butler | HFFL | 10.3 / 9.0 | 0.8 / 0.0 | 2.9 / 4.0 | 2.0 / 7.0 | 48 / 62 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 10.0 / 4.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 1.9 / 0.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 | 71 / 61 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 9.1 / 18.0 | 1.5 / 3.0 | 3.5 / 10.0 | 1.6 / 1.0 | 53 / 104 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 31.0 / 26.0 | 1.4 / 0.0 | 5.4 / 5.0 | 4.8 / 4.0 | 110 / 102 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 26.4 / 22.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 4.0 | 4.6 / 8.0 | 97 / 95 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 25.8 / 20.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 5.5 / 6.0 | 1.3 / 1.0 | 90 / 80 |
| Ed Richards | R | 25.3 / 22.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 4.0 | 3.6 / 7.0 | 94 / 91 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 21.3 / 25.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 4.0 | 2.4 / 7.0 | 70 / 93 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 21.2 / 17.0 | 0.8 / 1.0 | 4.2 / 2.0 | 2.3 / 2.0 | 77 / 54 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 20.8 / 22.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 6.5 / 6.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 83 / 79 |
| Connor Budarick | BPL | 19.6 / 15.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 4.6 / 4.0 | 1.9 / 3.0 | 74 / 64 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 17.4 / 13.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.1 / 2.0 | 1.7 / 3.0 | 62 / 49 |
| Oskar Baker | WL | 16.1 / 6.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 1.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 64 / 19 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 14.8 / 11.0 | 2.7 / 2.0 | 5.4 / 5.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 79 / 56 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 14.6 / 11.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 3.0 | 2.1 / 4.0 | 59 / 59 |
| Harvey Gallagher | INT | 13.9 / 10.0 | 0.2 / 1.0 | 3.5 / 1.0 | 2.2 / 0.0 | 56 / 36 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 13.9 / 21.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 4.0 | 2.7 / 2.0 | 66 / 74 |
| Louis Emmett | RK | 13.8 / 8.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 0.0 | 1.5 / 1.0 | 52 / 25 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 13.8 / 17.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 5.0 | 1.5 / 2.0 | 52 / 67 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 12.9 / 8.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 6.0 / 3.0 | 1.1 / 3.0 | 53 / 51 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 12.5 / 9.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 3.0 | 1.2 / 1.0 | 52 / 35 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 12.4 / 7.0 | 3.3 / 1.0 | 5.9 / 3.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 73 / 43 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 11.6 / 10.0 | 0.9 / 1.0 | 2.7 / 4.0 | 1.9 / 0.0 | 51 / 44 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 11.3 / 12.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.5 / 7.0 | 1.2 / 1.0 | 46 / 59 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 11.2 / 15.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 2.4 / 1.0 | 2.1 / 5.0 | 46 / 60 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 10.9 / 10.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 4.0 | 1.7 / 2.0 | 51 / 54 |