AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
Sat 11 Apr 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WB by 3
WB to win, 57% chance
HAW 43%57% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 40
MISS Actual margin 40 · 43.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 26.1 | - | - | 99% | 91% | 61% | 25% | 6% | 28.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 23.4 | - | - | 97% | 79% | 40% | 11% | 2% | 14.0 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 23.1 | - | - | 97% | 77% | 37% | 10% | 1% | 24.0 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 20.7 | - | - | 92% | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Dylan Moore | FPL | 20.1 | - | - | 90% | 54% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 20.1 | - | - | 90% | 54% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 26.0 |
| Conor Nash | INT | 19.4 | - | - | 87% | 48% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 19.3 | - | - | 87% | 47% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 19.1 | - | - | 86% | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 28.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 18.9 | - | - | 85% | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 18.5 | - | - | 82% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 18.0 | - | - | 79% | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Josh Weddle | BPL | 16.0 | - | - | 63% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 15.9 | - | - | 63% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 25.0 |
| Flynn Perez | WR | 14.3 | - | - | 46% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 13.9 | - | - | 42% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 13.0 | - | - | 32% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 11.6 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 10.9 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Mabior Chol | FF | 10.5 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Sam Butler | HFFL | 10.3 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 10.0 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 9.1 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 31.0 | - | - | 100% | 98% | 88% | 59% | 26% | 26.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 26.4 | - | - | 99% | 92% | 64% | 27% | 6% | 22.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 25.8 | - | - | 99% | 90% | 59% | 23% | 5% | 20.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 25.3 | - | - | 99% | 88% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 22.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 21.3 | - | - | 94% | 64% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 25.0 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 21.2 | - | - | 94% | 64% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 20.8 | - | - | 92% | 60% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Connor Budarick | BPL | 19.6 | - | - | 88% | 50% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 17.4 | - | - | 75% | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Oskar Baker | WL | 16.1 | - | - | 64% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 14.8 | - | - | 51% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 14.6 | - | - | 49% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Harvey Gallagher | INT | 13.9 | - | - | 42% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 13.9 | - | - | 42% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Louis Emmett | RK | 13.8 | - | - | 41% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 13.8 | - | - | 41% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 12.9 | - | - | 31% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 12.5 | - | - | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 12.4 | - | - | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 11.6 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 11.3 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 11.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 10.9 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |