AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
Sat 11 Apr 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WB by 3
WB to win, 57% chance
HAW 43%57% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 40
MISS Actual margin 40 · 43.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 91 | - | - | 84% | 70% | 52% | 34% | 18% | 98 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 85 | - | - | 76% | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 86 |
| Josh Ward | R | 83 | - | - | 73% | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 47 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 83 | - | - | 72% | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 98 |
| Dylan Moore | FPL | 81 | - | - | 70% | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 79 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 80 | - | - | 69% | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 115 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 76 | - | - | 60% | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 96 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 76 | - | - | 61% | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 113 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 76 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 96 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 75 | - | - | 59% | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 104 |
| Conor Nash | INT | 74 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 65 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 71 | - | - | 52% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 61 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 68 | - | - | 46% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 68 |
| Josh Weddle | BPL | 66 | - | - | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 72 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 102 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 64 | - | - | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 59 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 63 | - | - | 36% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 125 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 62 | - | - | 35% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 57 |
| Mabior Chol | FF | 59 | - | - | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 7 |
| Flynn Perez | WR | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 46 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 53 | - | - | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 104 |
| Sam Butler | HFFL | 48 | - | - | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 62 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 44 | - | - | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 61 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 110 | - | - | 97% | 92% | 82% | 67% | 49% | 102 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 97 | - | - | 90% | 78% | 62% | 44% | 26% | 95 |
| Ed Richards | R | 94 | - | - | 87% | 75% | 57% | 39% | 22% | 91 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 90 | - | - | 82% | 68% | 49% | 31% | 17% | 80 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 83 | - | - | 72% | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 79 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 79 | - | - | 66% | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 56 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 77 | - | - | 64% | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 54 |
| Connor Budarick | BPL | 74 | - | - | 58% | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 64 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 73 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 43 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 70 | - | - | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 93 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 74 |
| Oskar Baker | WL | 64 | - | - | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 19 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 62 | - | - | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 49 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 59 |
| Harvey Gallagher | INT | 56 | - | - | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 36 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 51 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 52 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 35 |
| Louis Emmett | RK | 52 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 25 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 52 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 67 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 51 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 54 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 51 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 44 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 46 | - | - | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 60 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 46 | - | - | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 59 |