AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
Sat 11 Apr 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WB by 3
WB to win, 57% chance
HAW 43%57% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 40
MISS Actual margin 40 · 43.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 2.6 | - | - | 92% | 73% | 48% | 26% | 12% | 3.0 |
| Mabior Chol | FF | 1.7 | - | - | 81% | 50% | 24% | 9% | 3% | 0.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 1.5 | - | - | 78% | 45% | 20% | 7% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 1.5 | - | - | 79% | 46% | 20% | 7% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 1.1 | - | - | 66% | 30% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Dylan Moore | FPL | 1.0 | - | - | 62% | 25% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 1.0 | - | - | 63% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Sam Butler | HFFL | 0.8 | - | - | 55% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Weddle | BPL | 0.5 | - | - | 42% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 0.4 | - | - | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Conor Nash | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 0.3 | - | - | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 0.3 | - | - | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 0.2 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Flynn Perez | WR | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 3.3 | - | - | 96% | 84% | 63% | 41% | 23% | 1.0 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 2.7 | - | - | 93% | 74% | 50% | 28% | 13% | 2.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 1.7 | - | - | 81% | 50% | 23% | 9% | 3% | 0.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 1.4 | - | - | 76% | 41% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 1.0 | - | - | 63% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 57% | 21% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 0.9 | - | - | 59% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 0.8 | - | - | 56% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 0.7 | - | - | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 0.7 | - | - | 52% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Oskar Baker | WL | 0.7 | - | - | 53% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 0.6 | - | - | 44% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 42% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Louis Emmett | RK | 0.5 | - | - | 42% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 42% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 0.4 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Connor Budarick | BPL | 0.3 | - | - | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 0.2 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Harvey Gallagher | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 0.0 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |