Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs

Sat 11 Apr 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)

FINAL MISS

OUR TIP

WB by 3

WB to win, 57% chance

HAW 43%57% WB

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

HAW by 40

MISS Actual margin 40 · 43.4 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Hawthorn

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	4+	5+	6+	7+	8+	ACTUAL
James Sicily	CHB	6.8	-	-	90%	80%	67%	51%	37%	13.0
Josh Battle	HBFL	6.0	-	-	85%	72%	56%	40%	26%	13.0
Jarman Impey	BPR	5.4	-	-	79%	63%	46%	30%	18%	10.0
Josh Weddle	BPL	5.2	-	-	77%	60%	43%	27%	16%	3.0
Jack Gunston	FPR	5.1	-	-	75%	57%	40%	25%	14%	4.0
Blake Hardwick	HBFR	5.0	-	-	74%	56%	38%	24%	13%	10.0
Dylan Moore	FPL	4.5	-	-	65%	46%	29%	16%	8%	2.0
Karl Amon	INT	4.5	-	-	67%	48%	31%	18%	9%	7.0
Tom Barrass	FB	4.4	-	-	65%	46%	29%	16%	8%	9.0
Connor Macdonald	INT	4.2	-	-	61%	41%	25%	13%	6%	6.0
Jack Ginnivan	INT	4.2	-	-	60%	40%	24%	13%	6%	9.0
Mabior Chol	FF	4.1	-	-	58%	38%	22%	12%	6%	0.0
Jai Newcombe	RR	3.8	-	-	53%	33%	18%	9%	4%	3.0
Josh Ward	R	3.7	-	-	52%	32%	18%	9%	4%	2.0
Massimo D'Ambrosio	WL	3.6	-	-	48%	28%	15%	7%	3%	8.0
Flynn Perez	WR	3.5	-	-	46%	27%	14%	6%	3%	1.0
Mitch Lewis	CHF	3.5	-	-	47%	28%	15%	7%	3%	10.0
Lloyd Meek	INT	3.1	-	-	38%	20%	10%	4%	2%	3.0
Cam Mackenzie	C	3.0	-	-	36%	19%	9%	4%	1%	3.0
Sam Butler	HFFL	2.9	-	-	33%	16%	7%	3%	1%	4.0
Nick Watson	HFFR	2.8	-	-	30%	15%	6%	2%	1%	2.0
Conor Nash	INT	2.3	-	-	21%	9%	3%	1%	0%	4.0
Ned Reeves	RK	1.9	-	-	13%	5%	1%	0%	0%	0.0

Western Bulldogs

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	4+	5+	6+	7+	8+	ACTUAL
Bailey Williams	WR	6.5	-	-	89%	78%	64%	48%	33%	6.0
Rory Lobb	BPR	6.0	-	-	84%	71%	55%	39%	25%	3.0
Aaron Naughton	FF	5.9	-	-	84%	71%	54%	38%	25%	3.0
Bailey Dale	HBFR	5.5	-	-	80%	65%	48%	32%	20%	6.0
Marcus Bontempelli	C	5.4	-	-	79%	63%	46%	30%	18%	5.0
Sam Darcy	CHF	5.4	-	-	79%	63%	45%	30%	18%	5.0
Buku Khamis	FB	4.9	-	-	73%	55%	37%	23%	13%	3.0
Matthew Kennedy	RR	4.9	-	-	72%	54%	36%	22%	12%	4.0
Oskar Baker	WL	4.9	-	-	72%	55%	37%	23%	13%	1.0
Connor Budarick	BPL	4.6	-	-	68%	49%	32%	18%	10%	4.0
James O'Donnell	CHB	4.5	-	-	66%	47%	30%	17%	9%	7.0
Joel Freijah	HFFR	4.2	-	-	60%	41%	24%	13%	6%	2.0
Lachlan Bramble	HBFL	4.1	-	-	58%	39%	23%	12%	6%	2.0
Ryley Sanders	HFFL	3.7	-	-	51%	32%	17%	8%	4%	4.0
Ed Richards	R	3.6	-	-	48%	29%	15%	7%	3%	4.0
Sam Davidson	INT	3.6	-	-	48%	29%	15%	7%	3%	3.0
Harvey Gallagher	INT	3.5	-	-	46%	27%	14%	6%	3%	1.0
Rhylee West	FPR	3.5	-	-	47%	28%	14%	7%	3%	4.0
Jordan Croft	FPL	3.1	-	-	38%	21%	10%	4%	2%	4.0
Louis Emmett	RK	2.8	-	-	30%	15%	6%	2%	1%	0.0
Michael Sellwood	INT	2.8	-	-	30%	15%	6%	2%	1%	5.0
Josh Dolan	INT	2.7	-	-	28%	14%	6%	2%	1%	4.0
Cooper Hynes	INT	2.4	-	-	21%	9%	3%	1%	0%	1.0