Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs

Sat 11 Apr 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)

FINAL MISS

OUR TIP

WB by 3

WB to win, 57% chance

HAW 43%57% WB

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

HAW by 40

MISS Actual margin 40 · 43.4 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Hawthorn

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	3+	4+	5+	6+	7+	ACTUAL
Conor Nash	INT	4.7	-	-	85%	69%	50%	33%	19%	4.0
Jai Newcombe	RR	4.1	-	-	78%	58%	39%	23%	12%	4.0
Josh Ward	R	3.7	-	-	72%	51%	32%	18%	8%	1.0
Cam Mackenzie	C	3.6	-	-	70%	49%	30%	16%	8%	4.0
Lloyd Meek	INT	3.1	-	-	59%	37%	20%	9%	4%	5.0
Dylan Moore	FPL	2.8	-	-	53%	30%	15%	6%	2%	2.0
Connor Macdonald	INT	2.3	-	-	40%	20%	8%	3%	1%	3.0
Mabior Chol	FF	2.2	-	-	38%	18%	7%	2%	1%	1.0
Ned Reeves	RK	2.2	-	-	38%	18%	7%	3%	1%	2.0
Nick Watson	HFFR	2.2	-	-	38%	18%	7%	2%	1%	3.0
Massimo D'Ambrosio	WL	2.1	-	-	34%	15%	6%	2%	0%	4.0
Blake Hardwick	HBFR	2.0	-	-	34%	15%	6%	2%	0%	6.0
Flynn Perez	WR	2.0	-	-	33%	15%	6%	2%	0%	3.0
Jack Ginnivan	INT	2.0	-	-	32%	14%	5%	2%	0%	1.0
Jarman Impey	BPR	2.0	-	-	34%	15%	6%	2%	0%	0.0
Josh Weddle	BPL	2.0	-	-	33%	15%	6%	2%	0%	4.0
Sam Butler	HFFL	2.0	-	-	32%	14%	5%	2%	0%	7.0
Karl Amon	INT	1.9	-	-	30%	13%	5%	1%	0%	0.0
James Sicily	CHB	1.8	-	-	26%	10%	3%	1%	0%	2.0
Josh Battle	HBFL	1.8	-	-	27%	11%	4%	1%	0%	1.0
Jack Gunston	FPR	1.6	-	-	22%	8%	2%	1%	0%	1.0
Mitch Lewis	CHF	1.6	-	-	22%	8%	2%	1%	0%	1.0
Tom Barrass	FB	0.9	-	-	7%	2%	0%	0%	0%	2.0

Western Bulldogs

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	3+	4+	5+	6+	7+	ACTUAL
Marcus Bontempelli	C	4.8	-	-	86%	70%	52%	35%	21%	4.0
Matthew Kennedy	RR	4.6	-	-	84%	68%	49%	32%	18%	8.0
Ed Richards	R	3.6	-	-	69%	47%	28%	15%	7%	7.0
Rhylee West	FPR	2.7	-	-	51%	29%	14%	6%	2%	2.0
Ryley Sanders	HFFL	2.4	-	-	42%	21%	9%	3%	1%	7.0
Joel Freijah	HFFR	2.3	-	-	40%	20%	8%	3%	1%	2.0
Harvey Gallagher	INT	2.2	-	-	37%	18%	7%	2%	1%	0.0
Bailey Williams	WR	2.1	-	-	35%	16%	6%	2%	1%	1.0
Cooper Hynes	INT	2.1	-	-	34%	15%	6%	2%	0%	5.0
Sam Davidson	INT	2.1	-	-	36%	17%	6%	2%	1%	4.0
Connor Budarick	BPL	1.9	-	-	30%	13%	4%	1%	0%	3.0
Josh Dolan	INT	1.9	-	-	29%	12%	4%	1%	0%	0.0
Aaron Naughton	FF	1.7	-	-	24%	9%	3%	1%	0%	1.0
Jordan Croft	FPL	1.7	-	-	24%	9%	3%	1%	0%	2.0
Lachlan Bramble	HBFL	1.7	-	-	24%	9%	3%	1%	0%	3.0
Oskar Baker	WL	1.7	-	-	25%	10%	3%	1%	0%	0.0
Sam Darcy	CHF	1.7	-	-	24%	9%	3%	1%	0%	0.0
Louis Emmett	RK	1.5	-	-	18%	6%	2%	0%	0%	1.0
Michael Sellwood	INT	1.5	-	-	18%	6%	2%	0%	0%	2.0
Bailey Dale	HBFR	1.3	-	-	14%	4%	1%	0%	0%	1.0
Buku Khamis	FB	1.2	-	-	12%	4%	1%	0%	0%	1.0
James O'Donnell	CHB	1.2	-	-	11%	3%	1%	0%	0%	1.0
Rory Lobb	BPR	1.1	-	-	10%	3%	0%	0%	0%	3.0