North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions

Sat 11 Apr 2026, 12:05pm ACST (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIP

BRI by 20

BRI to win, 83% chance

NM 17%83% BRI

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

BRI by 26

HIT Actual margin 26 · 5.5 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

North Melbourne

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	1+	2+	3+	4+	5+	ACTUAL
Nick Larkey	FF	2.0	-	-	86%	58%	31%	14%	5%	1.0
Cameron Zurhaar	FPL	1.6	-	-	81%	49%	23%	9%	3%	0.0
Paul Curtis	HFFL	1.5	-	-	77%	43%	18%	6%	2%	1.0
Cooper Trembath	CHF	1.2	-	-	71%	35%	13%	4%	1%	2.0
Jack Darling	FPR	1.1	-	-	68%	31%	11%	3%	1%	1.0
Charlie Spargo	INT	0.7	-	-	48%	14%	3%	0%	0%	0.0
Zane Duursma	HFFR	0.7	-	-	48%	14%	3%	0%	0%	0.0
Zac Banch	INT	0.6	-	-	46%	13%	2%	0%	0%	1.0
Tom Powell	C	0.5	-	-	38%	8%	1%	0%	0%	1.0
Colby McKercher	HBFL	0.4	-	-	30%	5%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Harry Sheezel	R	0.4	-	-	32%	6%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Luke Davies-Uniacke	RR	0.4	-	-	36%	7%	1%	0%	0%	1.0
Luke Parker	INT	0.4	-	-	35%	7%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Callum Coleman-Jones	RK	0.3	-	-	28%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Dylan Stephens	WR	0.3	-	-	28%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jy Simpkin	WL	0.3	-	-	28%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Tom Blamires	HBFR	0.3	-	-	25%	3%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Aidan Corr	INT	0.2	-	-	20%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
George Wardlaw	INT	0.2	-	-	22%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Caleb Daniel	CHB	0.1	-	-	9%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Charlie Comben	BPR	0.1	-	-	7%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Griffin Logue	FB	0.1	-	-	7%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Luke McDonald	BPL	0.1	-	-	9%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0

Brisbane Lions

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	1+	2+	3+	4+	5+	ACTUAL
Logan Morris	INT	1.8	-	-	83%	52%	26%	10%	3%	0.0
Charlie Cameron	HFFL	1.5	-	-	77%	44%	19%	6%	2%	1.0
Cam Rayner	FF	1.4	-	-	76%	42%	18%	6%	2%	1.0
Zac Bailey	INT	1.4	-	-	75%	41%	17%	5%	1%	2.0
Kai Lohmann	INT	1.3	-	-	74%	39%	15%	5%	1%	1.0
Oscar Allen	CHF	1.3	-	-	72%	36%	14%	4%	1%	3.0
Lincoln McCarthy	INT	1.1	-	-	67%	31%	10%	3%	1%	2.0
Hugh McCluggage	INT	0.7	-	-	49%	15%	3%	0%	0%	0.0
Sam Draper	FPL	0.6	-	-	46%	12%	2%	0%	0%	2.0
Will Ashcroft	C	0.5	-	-	37%	8%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Bruce Reville	WL	0.4	-	-	34%	7%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Jarrod Berry	WR	0.4	-	-	30%	5%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Ty Gallop	FPR	0.4	-	-	33%	6%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Levi Ashcroft	HFFR	0.3	-	-	26%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Darcy Fort	RK	0.2	-	-	17%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Josh Dunkley	RR	0.2	-	-	21%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Lachie Neale	R	0.2	-	-	20%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Darcy Wilmot	HBFL	0.1	-	-	9%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Dayne Zorko	HBFR	0.1	-	-	12%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jaspa Fletcher	CHB	0.1	-	-	10%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Keidean Coleman	BPL	0.1	-	-	8%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Harris Andrews	FB	-0.0	-	-	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Ryan Lester	BPR	0.0	-	-	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0