AFL · ROUND 5 · BAROSSA PARK
North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions
Sat 11 Apr 2026, 12:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 20
BRI to win, 83% chance
NM 17%83% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 26
HIT Actual margin 26 · 5.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke McDonald | BPL | 6.5 | - | - | 89% | 78% | 63% | 48% | 33% | 5.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 6.1 | - | - | 86% | 73% | 57% | 41% | 27% | 3.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 5.9 | - | - | 84% | 70% | 53% | 37% | 24% | 6.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 5.7 | - | - | 82% | 67% | 50% | 35% | 22% | 8.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 60% | 42% | 27% | 16% | 3.0 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 5.1 | - | - | 75% | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 9.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 5.1 | - | - | 75% | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 5.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 4.8 | - | - | 71% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 12% | 4.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 4.6 | - | - | 68% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 10% | 2.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 4.6 | - | - | 68% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 10% | 3.0 |
| Tom Powell | C | 4.5 | - | - | 66% | 47% | 30% | 17% | 9% | 4.0 |
| Aidan Corr | INT | 4.2 | - | - | 60% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 3.0 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFR | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 4.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 8.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Zane Duursma | HFFR | 3.2 | - | - | 40% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | INT | 3.0 | - | - | 36% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | RK | 2.3 | - | - | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 2.3 | - | - | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 7.2 | - | - | 93% | 84% | 72% | 58% | 43% | 0.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 7.0 | - | - | 92% | 83% | 70% | 55% | 40% | 6.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 7.0 | - | - | 92% | 82% | 70% | 55% | 40% | 6.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 6.9 | - | - | 91% | 82% | 68% | 53% | 38% | 2.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 6.6 | - | - | 89% | 79% | 64% | 49% | 34% | 5.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WR | 6.2 | - | - | 87% | 74% | 59% | 43% | 29% | 3.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 6.2 | - | - | 87% | 75% | 59% | 43% | 29% | 5.0 |
| Zac Bailey | INT | 5.0 | - | - | 74% | 56% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 4.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 4.7 | - | - | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 4.7 | - | - | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 4.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 4.6 | - | - | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 1.0 |
| Bruce Reville | WL | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 45% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 3.0 |
| Logan Morris | INT | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 44% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4.0 |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 4.2 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 4.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 4.0 | - | - | 57% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 3.9 | - | - | 56% | 36% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 3.9 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 6.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 3.7 | - | - | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 5.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Ty Gallop | FPR | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 3.3 | - | - | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 1.7 | - | - | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |