North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions

Sat 11 Apr 2026, 12:05pm ACST (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIP

BRI by 20

BRI to win, 83% chance

NM 17%83% BRI

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

BRI by 26

HIT Actual margin 26 · 5.5 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

North Melbourne

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	3+	4+	5+	6+	7+	ACTUAL
George Wardlaw	INT	4.5	-	-	83%	66%	47%	30%	17%	5.0
Luke Davies-Uniacke	RR	4.5	-	-	82%	65%	46%	29%	16%	8.0
Harry Sheezel	R	4.3	-	-	81%	63%	44%	27%	15%	4.0
Tom Powell	C	3.4	-	-	66%	44%	25%	13%	6%	1.0
Luke Parker	INT	3.2	-	-	62%	40%	22%	11%	5%	0.0
Paul Curtis	HFFL	2.9	-	-	55%	32%	16%	7%	3%	4.0
Jy Simpkin	WL	2.3	-	-	42%	21%	9%	3%	1%	4.0
Charlie Spargo	INT	2.1	-	-	35%	16%	6%	2%	1%	2.0
Caleb Daniel	CHB	2.0	-	-	33%	15%	6%	2%	0%	3.0
Colby McKercher	HBFL	2.0	-	-	33%	15%	6%	2%	0%	3.0
Dylan Stephens	WR	1.9	-	-	30%	12%	4%	1%	0%	2.0
Jack Darling	FPR	1.9	-	-	30%	13%	4%	1%	0%	4.0
Zac Banch	INT	1.9	-	-	30%	12%	4%	1%	0%	2.0
Callum Coleman-Jones	RK	1.8	-	-	26%	10%	3%	1%	0%	2.0
Cameron Zurhaar	FPL	1.8	-	-	28%	12%	4%	1%	0%	1.0
Luke McDonald	BPL	1.7	-	-	25%	10%	3%	1%	0%	3.0
Aidan Corr	INT	1.6	-	-	21%	7%	2%	0%	0%	2.0
Tom Blamires	HBFR	1.6	-	-	22%	8%	2%	1%	0%	0.0
Zane Duursma	HFFR	1.6	-	-	22%	8%	2%	1%	0%	1.0
Cooper Trembath	CHF	1.5	-	-	20%	7%	2%	0%	0%	3.0
Charlie Comben	BPR	1.4	-	-	17%	5%	2%	0%	0%	2.0
Nick Larkey	FF	1.2	-	-	13%	4%	1%	0%	0%	2.0
Griffin Logue	FB	1.0	-	-	8%	2%	0%	0%	0%	1.0

Brisbane Lions

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	3+	4+	5+	6+	7+	ACTUAL
Josh Dunkley	RR	5.7	-	-	92%	82%	68%	51%	35%	4.0
Will Ashcroft	C	4.1	-	-	77%	58%	39%	23%	12%	6.0
Hugh McCluggage	INT	4.0	-	-	76%	57%	38%	22%	11%	5.0
Darcy Fort	RK	3.0	-	-	58%	35%	19%	8%	3%	3.0
Lachie Neale	R	3.0	-	-	59%	36%	19%	9%	4%	3.0
Zac Bailey	INT	2.7	-	-	50%	28%	13%	6%	2%	5.0
Kai Lohmann	INT	2.4	-	-	44%	23%	10%	4%	1%	3.0
Jarrod Berry	WR	2.3	-	-	41%	21%	9%	3%	1%	7.0
Charlie Cameron	HFFL	2.2	-	-	38%	18%	7%	2%	1%	3.0
Dayne Zorko	HBFR	2.1	-	-	36%	17%	6%	2%	1%	1.0
Levi Ashcroft	HFFR	2.1	-	-	34%	16%	6%	2%	0%	2.0
Lincoln McCarthy	INT	2.1	-	-	36%	16%	6%	2%	1%	1.0
Cam Rayner	FF	2.0	-	-	33%	15%	6%	2%	0%	4.0
Bruce Reville	WL	1.9	-	-	31%	13%	5%	2%	0%	1.0
Keidean Coleman	BPL	1.9	-	-	30%	12%	4%	1%	0%	1.0
Sam Draper	FPL	1.9	-	-	30%	13%	4%	1%	0%	0.0
Darcy Wilmot	HBFL	1.8	-	-	28%	11%	4%	1%	0%	2.0
Ty Gallop	FPR	1.8	-	-	27%	11%	4%	1%	0%	2.0
Jaspa Fletcher	CHB	1.7	-	-	25%	10%	3%	1%	0%	5.0
Ryan Lester	BPR	1.6	-	-	22%	8%	2%	1%	0%	1.0
Logan Morris	INT	1.5	-	-	20%	7%	2%	0%	0%	2.0
Oscar Allen	CHF	1.4	-	-	16%	5%	1%	0%	0%	1.0
Harris Andrews	FB	1.1	-	-	10%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0.0