AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v St Kilda
Sun 12 Apr 2026, 6:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 2
STK to win, 54% chance
PA 46%54% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 12.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 28.8 | - | - | 100% | 96% | 79% | 44% | 15% | 31.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 24.5 | - | - | 98% | 84% | 49% | 16% | 3% | 26.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 21.9 | - | - | 95% | 69% | 28% | 6% | 1% | 20.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 21.4 | - | - | 94% | 65% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 26.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 21.2 | - | - | 93% | 63% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | BPL | 19.3 | - | - | 86% | 46% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Logan Evans | HBFL | 17.5 | - | - | 76% | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 17.4 | - | - | 75% | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 16.1 | - | - | 64% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 15.5 | - | - | 58% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 15.1 | - | - | 54% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Todd Marshall | INT | 15.0 | - | - | 53% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 14.8 | - | - | 52% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 14.5 | - | - | 48% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 13.9 | - | - | 42% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 13.8 | - | - | 41% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | HFFL | 13.3 | - | - | 36% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 12.9 | - | - | 32% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 12.8 | - | - | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | INT | 11.4 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 11.4 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 11.3 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 10.6 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 10.2 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 9.3 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 8.5 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair | HBFL | 28.6 | - | - | 100% | 96% | 78% | 42% | 14% | 23.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 26.9 | - | - | 100% | 93% | 67% | 30% | 7% | 28.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | R | 25.0 | - | - | 99% | 87% | 53% | 18% | 3% | 24.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 23.0 | - | - | 97% | 76% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 18.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 21.1 | - | - | 93% | 62% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 20.7 | - | - | 92% | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 20.1 | - | - | 90% | 54% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 17.8 | - | - | 78% | 33% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 26.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 17.8 | - | - | 78% | 33% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 17.1 | - | - | 72% | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 16.3 | - | - | 66% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 14.9 | - | - | 53% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Mason Wood | HFFL | 14.8 | - | - | 52% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 14.7 | - | - | 50% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 14.3 | - | - | 46% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | WL | 13.2 | - | - | 35% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 12.9 | - | - | 32% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 11.8 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 11.3 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Dougal Howard | INT | 10.9 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 10.9 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 10.6 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | INT | 10.5 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Dan Butler | INT | 9.9 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Alix Tauru | BPR | 9.8 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Jack Higgins | FPL | 9.2 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |