AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v St Kilda
Sun 12 Apr 2026, 6:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 2
STK to win, 54% chance
PA 46%54% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 12.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 7.6 | - | - | 95% | 88% | 77% | 64% | 50% | 11.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 6.3 | - | - | 87% | 75% | 60% | 44% | 29% | 6.0 |
| Todd Marshall | INT | 6.3 | - | - | 88% | 76% | 61% | 45% | 30% | 7.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 5.9 | - | - | 84% | 71% | 54% | 38% | 25% | 9.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | HFFL | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 47% | 32% | 19% | 5.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 47% | 31% | 19% | 2.0 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | INT | 5.1 | - | - | 76% | 58% | 41% | 26% | 15% | - |
| Logan Evans | HBFL | 5.1 | - | - | 75% | 58% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 5.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | BPL | 5.0 | - | - | 73% | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 5.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 5.0 | - | - | 73% | 56% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 5.0 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 4.5 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 9.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 4.3 | - | - | 62% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 2.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 4.1 | - | - | 59% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 4.0 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 4.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 3.9 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 6.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 3.7 | - | - | 50% | 31% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 5.0 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 5.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 3.2 | - | - | 39% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 3.0 | - | - | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.8 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 2.3 | - | - | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 8.1 | - | - | 96% | 91% | 82% | 70% | 56% | 15.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 6.0 | - | - | 84% | 71% | 55% | 39% | 25% | 8.0 |
| Dougal Howard | INT | 5.7 | - | - | 82% | 68% | 51% | 35% | 22% | - |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 5.7 | - | - | 82% | 67% | 50% | 35% | 22% | 8.0 |
| Mason Wood | HFFL | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 2.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | HBFL | 5.3 | - | - | 78% | 62% | 44% | 29% | 17% | 6.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | R | 5.3 | - | - | 77% | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 3.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 12% | 4.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 4.7 | - | - | 69% | 50% | 33% | 20% | 10% | 1.0 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 4.7 | - | - | 69% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 11% | 7.0 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 4.6 | - | - | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 6.0 |
| Alix Tauru | BPR | 4.2 | - | - | 60% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 4.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 4.2 | - | - | 60% | 41% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 0.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 4.2 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 2.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 4.2 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | WL | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 3.9 | - | - | 55% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 5.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 47% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | - |
| Max Hall | C | 3.4 | - | - | 43% | 25% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 3.4 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | - |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 34% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 2.7 | - | - | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 2.6 | - | - | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Jack Higgins | FPL | 2.5 | - | - | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |