AFL · ROUND 5 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v St Kilda
Sun 12 Apr 2026, 6:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 2
STK to win, 54% chance
PA 46%54% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 12.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem Drew | R | 5.3 | - | - | 90% | 78% | 61% | 44% | 28% | 8.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 4.3 | - | - | 81% | 63% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 6.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 4.3 | - | - | 81% | 63% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 6.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 2.9 | - | - | 54% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | BPL | 2.8 | - | - | 54% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.8 | - | - | 54% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 2.6 | - | - | 48% | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 2.5 | - | - | 45% | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 7.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 2.2 | - | - | 38% | 18% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 36% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 7.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 2.1 | - | - | 36% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 31% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Jack Lukosius | HFFL | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Logan Evans | HBFL | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | INT | 1.6 | - | - | 22% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 1.6 | - | - | 21% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 1.5 | - | - | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 1.4 | - | - | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Todd Marshall | INT | 1.3 | - | - | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 1.2 | - | - | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 4.4 | - | - | 81% | 64% | 44% | 28% | 15% | 4.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 3.6 | - | - | 69% | 48% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 0.0 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 68% | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 3.2 | - | - | 62% | 40% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | WL | 2.5 | - | - | 47% | 25% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 9.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 2.4 | - | - | 43% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 7.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | R | 2.4 | - | - | 42% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 2.4 | - | - | 42% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 2.4 | - | - | 44% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 7.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 2.2 | - | - | 38% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 9.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | HBFL | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Jack Higgins | FPL | 2.0 | - | - | 31% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 1.9 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Mason Wood | HFFL | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.6 | - | - | 23% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 1.6 | - | - | 23% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 1.6 | - | - | 21% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 1.5 | - | - | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Alix Tauru | BPR | 1.4 | - | - | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Dougal Howard | INT | 1.2 | - | - | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 1.0 | - | - | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |