AFL · ROUND 5 · NORWOOD OVAL
Sydney Swans v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 11 Apr 2026, 3:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GCS by 3
GCS to win, 57% chance
SYD 43%57% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 32
MISS Actual margin 32 · 35.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 110 | - | - | 97% | 92% | 82% | 68% | 49% | 130 |
| Isaac Heeney | C | 95 | - | - | 88% | 76% | 59% | 41% | 24% | 145 |
| Chad Warner | RR | 91 | - | - | 84% | 70% | 52% | 34% | 18% | 91 |
| Callum Mills | BPR | 90 | - | - | 83% | 69% | 50% | 32% | 17% | 98 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 90 | - | - | 82% | 67% | 49% | 31% | 16% | 94 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 88 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 46% | 28% | 14% | 71 |
| James Rowbottom | INT | 77 | - | - | 62% | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 75 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 77 | - | - | 62% | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 88 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 76 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 44 |
| Jake Lloyd | FPR | 76 | - | - | 62% | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 49 |
| Riley Bice | HBFL | 75 | - | - | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 67 |
| Tom Papley | CHF | 75 | - | - | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 102 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 63 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 73 |
| James Jordon | HFFR | 62 | - | - | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 48 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 62 | - | - | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 47 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 62 | - | - | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 81 |
| Corey Warner | HFFL | 58 | - | - | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 34 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 58 | - | - | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 57 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 45 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 66 |
| Dane Rampe | HBFR | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 62 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 48 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 58 |
| Joel Hamling | BPL | 39 | - | - | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 54 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 96 | - | - | 89% | 77% | 61% | 42% | 25% | 55 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 93 | - | - | 86% | 74% | 56% | 37% | 21% | 104 |
| Touk Miller | HFFL | 88 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 77 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 86 | - | - | 77% | 61% | 42% | 25% | 12% | 72 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 80 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 66 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPL | 77 | - | - | 64% | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 87 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 77 | - | - | 62% | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 36 |
| Wil Powell | C | 74 | - | - | 57% | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 69 |
| Alex Davies | INT | 67 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 39 |
| Sam Clohesy | INT | 67 | - | - | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 41 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 64 | - | - | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 42 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 63 | - | - | 36% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 69 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 58 | - | - | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 51 |
| Ben Long | INT | 56 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 74 |
| Ethan Read | FPL | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 16 |
| Will Graham | HFFR | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 76 |
| Ben King | FF | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 25 |
| Charlie Ballard | CHB | 52 | - | - | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 32 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 52 | - | - | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 43 |
| Zeke Uwland | WR | 52 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 49 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 50 | - | - | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 32 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 50 | - | - | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 39 |
| Jed Walter | CHF | 42 | - | - | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 36 |