AFL · ROUND 5 · NORWOOD OVAL
Sydney Swans v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 11 Apr 2026, 3:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GCS by 3
GCS to win, 57% chance
SYD 43%57% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 32
MISS Actual margin 32 · 35.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 2.7 | - | - | 94% | 76% | 52% | 30% | 14% | 0.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 2.4 | - | - | 91% | 69% | 43% | 22% | 9% | 0.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | C | 1.8 | - | - | 83% | 53% | 27% | 11% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Tom Papley | CHF | 1.8 | - | - | 84% | 55% | 28% | 11% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 1.4 | - | - | 74% | 39% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 1.1 | - | - | 68% | 32% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 1.0 | - | - | 64% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Chad Warner | RR | 0.9 | - | - | 60% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Corey Warner | HFFL | 0.9 | - | - | 59% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | FPR | 0.7 | - | - | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 0.5 | - | - | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFR | 0.5 | - | - | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| James Rowbottom | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 0.4 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 0.3 | - | - | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 0.2 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFL | 0.2 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Joel Hamling | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dane Rampe | HBFR | 0.0 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben King | FF | 2.7 | - | - | 93% | 75% | 50% | 28% | 14% | 2.0 |
| Ben Long | INT | 1.6 | - | - | 79% | 47% | 21% | 8% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Ethan Read | FPL | 1.3 | - | - | 73% | 38% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jed Walter | CHF | 1.0 | - | - | 63% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 1.0 | - | - | 62% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFR | 0.8 | - | - | 56% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 0.7 | - | - | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Touk Miller | HFFL | 0.6 | - | - | 44% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | WR | 0.5 | - | - | 42% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 0.4 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Alex Davies | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 0.3 | - | - | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 0.2 | - | - | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Wil Powell | C | 0.2 | - | - | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | -0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |