AFL · ROUND 5 · NORWOOD OVAL
Sydney Swans v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 11 Apr 2026, 3:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GCS by 3
GCS to win, 57% chance
SYD 43%57% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 32
MISS Actual margin 32 · 35.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Mills | BPR | 6.4 | - | - | 88% | 77% | 62% | 46% | 32% | 3.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 6.1 | - | - | 85% | 72% | 56% | 40% | 26% | 2.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 6.0 | - | - | 85% | 72% | 56% | 40% | 26% | 7.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 5.8 | - | - | 83% | 68% | 52% | 36% | 22% | 5.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | FPR | 5.8 | - | - | 83% | 69% | 52% | 36% | 23% | 2.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 5.6 | - | - | 81% | 66% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 4.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFL | 5.3 | - | - | 77% | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 4.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 5.0 | - | - | 73% | 55% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 5.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 12% | 4.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 4.8 | - | - | 70% | 52% | 34% | 21% | 11% | 3.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 4.4 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 5.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | C | 4.1 | - | - | 59% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Dane Rampe | HBFR | 3.9 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Chad Warner | RR | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Tom Papley | CHF | 3.7 | - | - | 51% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Corey Warner | HFFL | 3.4 | - | - | 44% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 3.2 | - | - | 40% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Joel Hamling | BPL | 3.0 | - | - | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 2.8 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFR | 2.7 | - | - | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| James Rowbottom | INT | 2.6 | - | - | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodhi Uwland | BPL | 6.9 | - | - | 91% | 82% | 68% | 53% | 38% | 3.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 6.0 | - | - | 85% | 71% | 55% | 39% | 25% | 4.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 5.9 | - | - | 84% | 70% | 54% | 38% | 24% | 6.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | CHB | 5.6 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 48% | 32% | 20% | 1.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 5.4 | - | - | 79% | 63% | 46% | 30% | 18% | 2.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 5.3 | - | - | 77% | 61% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 1.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 4.7 | - | - | 69% | 51% | 33% | 20% | 10% | 1.0 |
| Wil Powell | C | 4.7 | - | - | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 11% | 7.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | INT | 4.6 | - | - | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 1.0 |
| Ethan Read | FPL | 4.5 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 1.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 4.4 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 1.0 |
| Touk Miller | HFFL | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 44% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 3.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 4.1 | - | - | 59% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3.0 |
| Ben Long | INT | 3.9 | - | - | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 3.4 | - | - | 45% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 3.2 | - | - | 40% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 3.2 | - | - | 40% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFR | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | WR | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Jed Walter | CHF | 2.7 | - | - | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 2.3 | - | - | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 2.0 | - | - | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Alex Davies | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |