AFL · ROUND 6 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v St Kilda
Sat 18 Apr 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 18
ADE to win, 72% chance
ADE 72%28% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 1
HIT Actual margin 1 · 16.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 24.0 | - | - | 94% | 76% | 43% | 15% | 3% | 28.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 23.0 | - | - | 92% | 71% | 36% | 11% | 2% | 26.0 |
| Wayne Milera | INT | 22.1 | - | - | 90% | 65% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 29.0 |
| James Peatling | RR | 20.4 | - | - | 84% | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Sam Berry | C | 20.2 | - | - | 84% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Josh Rachele | R | 19.3 | - | - | 80% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Izak Rankine | FPR | 16.4 | - | - | 61% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 15.9 | - | - | 58% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 14.9 | - | - | 50% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 14.7 | - | - | 48% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 14.4 | - | - | 44% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | WR | 14.4 | - | - | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Brayden Cook | INT | 13.6 | - | - | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 13.4 | - | - | 36% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 12.0 | - | - | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 11.5 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Nick Murray | FB | 11.5 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Hugh Bond | HBFR | 11.3 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Charlie Edwards | INT | 10.9 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | 10.7 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Zac Taylor | HFFR | 10.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 8.5 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Finnbar Maley | INT | 8.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 27.5 | - | - | 98% | 89% | 66% | 34% | 11% | 28.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | HBFL | 26.1 | - | - | 97% | 85% | 57% | 26% | 7% | 35.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | R | 24.4 | - | - | 95% | 78% | 46% | 17% | 3% | 20.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 22.8 | - | - | 92% | 69% | 35% | 10% | 2% | 30.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 20.6 | - | - | 85% | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 31.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 20.4 | - | - | 85% | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 20.1 | - | - | 83% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 17.9 | - | - | 72% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 17.7 | - | - | 71% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 16.7 | - | - | 64% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 15.5 | - | - | 55% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 25.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 14.8 | - | - | 48% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Jack Carroll | BPR | 14.6 | - | - | 46% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Mason Wood | HFFL | 14.1 | - | - | 42% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 13.3 | - | - | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 13.3 | - | - | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | WL | 12.6 | - | - | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 11.6 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 11.1 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 9.8 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 9.7 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 9.7 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Jack Higgins | FPL | 8.9 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |