AFL · ROUND 6 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v St Kilda
Sat 18 Apr 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 18
ADE to win, 72% chance
ADE 72%28% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 1
HIT Actual margin 1 · 16.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 91 | - | - | 82% | 68% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 114 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 88 | - | - | 78% | 63% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 92 |
| Wayne Milera | INT | 84 | - | - | 74% | 58% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 117 |
| Sam Berry | C | 81 | - | - | 70% | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 80 |
| Josh Rachele | R | 80 | - | - | 67% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 67 |
| James Peatling | RR | 78 | - | - | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 119 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 78 | - | - | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 65 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 78 | - | - | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 89 |
| Izak Rankine | FPR | 74 | - | - | 57% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 70 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 72 |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 66 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 68 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 101 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 67 | - | - | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 19 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 63 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 64 |
| Luke Nankervis | WR | 60 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 24 |
| Brayden Cook | INT | 59 | - | - | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 80 |
| Charlie Edwards | INT | 59 | - | - | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 60 |
| Nick Murray | FB | 51 | - | - | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 59 |
| Zac Taylor | HFFR | 50 | - | - | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 56 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 48 | - | - | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 45 |
| Hugh Bond | HBFR | 47 | - | - | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 56 |
| Finnbar Maley | INT | 45 | - | - | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 49 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | 45 | - | - | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 62 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 101 | - | - | 90% | 81% | 68% | 52% | 35% | 93 |
| Jack Sinclair | HBFL | 96 | - | - | 87% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 28% | 117 |
| Marcus Windhager | R | 89 | - | - | 80% | 66% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 91 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 83 | - | - | 72% | 55% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 63 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 83 | - | - | 72% | 55% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 99 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 82 | - | - | 70% | 54% | 36% | 21% | 10% | 130 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 79 | - | - | 66% | 49% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 37 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 77 | - | - | 63% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 91 |
| Max Hall | C | 74 | - | - | 58% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 46 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 74 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 104 |
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 71 | - | - | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 93 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 66 | - | - | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 90 |
| Mason Wood | HFFL | 65 | - | - | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 75 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 61 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 21 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 60 | - | - | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 61 |
| Jack Carroll | BPR | 57 | - | - | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 54 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 56 | - | - | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 56 |
| Hugh Boxshall | WL | 55 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 38 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 54 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 41 |
| Jack Higgins | FPL | 52 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 58 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 51 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 44 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 48 | - | - | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 36 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 48 | - | - | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 38 |