AFL · ROUND 6 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v St Kilda
Sat 18 Apr 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 18
ADE to win, 72% chance
ADE 72%28% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 1
HIT Actual margin 1 · 16.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 1.9 | - | - | 74% | 47% | 21% | 6% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 1.9 | - | - | 73% | 46% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Izak Rankine | FPR | 1.3 | - | - | 59% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Josh Rachele | R | 1.1 | - | - | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 1.0 | - | - | 50% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 47% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 0.7 | - | - | 36% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Charlie Edwards | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Finnbar Maley | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 29% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Zac Taylor | HFFR | 0.6 | - | - | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| James Peatling | RR | 0.4 | - | - | 19% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Brayden Cook | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Berry | C | 0.3 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 0.2 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | WR | 0.2 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | 0.1 | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Wayne Milera | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Hugh Bond | HBFR | 0.0 | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 0.0 | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nick Murray | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Higgins | FPL | 1.7 | - | - | 71% | 42% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 1.6 | - | - | 68% | 38% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.5 | - | - | 66% | 35% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 1.4 | - | - | 63% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 1.0 | - | - | 51% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mason Wood | HFFL | 0.8 | - | - | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 0.8 | - | - | 42% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 0.7 | - | - | 38% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 0.6 | - | - | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 33% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 0.6 | - | - | 32% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | WL | 0.4 | - | - | 19% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 0.4 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Carroll | BPR | 0.3 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 0.3 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 0.2 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | R | 0.2 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 0.0 | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |