AFL · ROUND 6 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v St Kilda
Sat 18 Apr 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 18
ADE to win, 72% chance
ADE 72%28% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 1
HIT Actual margin 1 · 16.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 5.8 | - | - | 75% | 62% | 48% | 33% | 21% | 11.0 |
| Wayne Milera | INT | 5.5 | - | - | 72% | 58% | 43% | 29% | 17% | 9.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 5.4 | - | - | 71% | 56% | 41% | 27% | 16% | 5.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 5.1 | - | - | 68% | 52% | 37% | 23% | 13% | 7.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 4.8 | - | - | 63% | 47% | 31% | 19% | 10% | 7.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 4.8 | - | - | 62% | 46% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 7.0 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | 4.3 | - | - | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 4.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 4.1 | - | - | 53% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 0.0 |
| Nick Murray | FB | 3.8 | - | - | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 6.0 |
| Josh Rachele | R | 3.6 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | WR | 3.5 | - | - | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Brayden Cook | INT | 3.4 | - | - | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 7.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 3.0 | - | - | 31% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Izak Rankine | FPR | 3.0 | - | - | 31% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 2.9 | - | - | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Finnbar Maley | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Hugh Bond | HBFR | 2.9 | - | - | 29% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Charlie Edwards | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 27% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| James Peatling | RR | 2.5 | - | - | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 2.5 | - | - | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Zac Taylor | HFFR | 2.5 | - | - | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Sam Berry | C | 2.0 | - | - | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 1.9 | - | - | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 9.8 | - | - | 95% | 92% | 86% | 79% | 70% | 12.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 5.8 | - | - | 74% | 61% | 46% | 32% | 20% | 6.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 5.5 | - | - | 72% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 16% | 4.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | HBFL | 5.4 | - | - | 70% | 56% | 40% | 26% | 15% | 7.0 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 5.2 | - | - | 68% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 14% | 5.0 |
| Jack Carroll | BPR | 4.8 | - | - | 63% | 47% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 5.0 |
| Mason Wood | HFFL | 4.8 | - | - | 63% | 47% | 31% | 18% | 10% | 4.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 4.6 | - | - | 60% | 44% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 2.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 4.5 | - | - | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 5.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | R | 4.5 | - | - | 59% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 7.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 4.1 | - | - | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 5.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 4.1 | - | - | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 5.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 3.9 | - | - | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 5.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 3.8 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | WL | 3.3 | - | - | 36% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 3.3 | - | - | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 3.1 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 3.0 | - | - | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 2.9 | - | - | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 29% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 2.5 | - | - | 20% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 2.4 | - | - | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jack Higgins | FPL | 2.3 | - | - | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |