Adelaide Crows v St Kilda

Sat 18 Apr 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIP

ADE by 18

ADE to win, 72% chance

ADE 72%28% STK

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

ADE by 1

HIT Actual margin 1 · 16.6 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Adelaide Crows

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	3+	4+	5+	6+	7+	ACTUAL
Sam Berry	C	5.0	-	-	79%	66%	51%	35%	22%	7.0
James Peatling	RR	3.7	-	-	63%	45%	28%	15%	7%	8.0
Lachlan McAndrew	RK	3.3	-	-	56%	36%	20%	9%	3%	3.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	FPL	3.1	-	-	52%	33%	17%	7%	2%	2.0
Rory Laird	HBFL	2.9	-	-	47%	28%	13%	5%	2%	2.0
Izak Rankine	FPR	2.8	-	-	46%	26%	12%	4%	1%	1.0
Ben Keays	HFFL	2.7	-	-	43%	24%	10%	4%	1%	6.0
Josh Rachele	R	2.7	-	-	43%	23%	10%	4%	1%	2.0
Hugh Bond	HBFR	2.4	-	-	38%	19%	7%	2%	0%	0.0
Isaac Cumming	WL	2.2	-	-	31%	13%	4%	1%	0%	2.0
Zac Taylor	HFFR	2.2	-	-	32%	14%	5%	1%	0%	2.0
Brayden Cook	INT	2.0	-	-	26%	10%	3%	0%	0%	1.0
Luke Pedlar	INT	2.0	-	-	26%	10%	3%	1%	0%	0.0
Max Michalanney	BPR	2.0	-	-	27%	11%	3%	1%	0%	2.0
Riley Thilthorpe	CHF	2.0	-	-	27%	11%	3%	1%	0%	1.0
Luke Nankervis	WR	1.9	-	-	24%	9%	2%	0%	0%	2.0
Wayne Milera	INT	1.9	-	-	25%	10%	3%	0%	0%	3.0
Finnbar Maley	INT	1.8	-	-	22%	8%	2%	0%	0%	3.0
Charlie Edwards	INT	1.5	-	-	14%	3%	0%	0%	0%	2.0
Taylor Walker	FF	1.4	-	-	12%	3%	0%	0%	0%	4.0
Josh Worrell	BPL	1.2	-	-	7%	1%	0%	0%	0%	2.0
Nick Murray	FB	1.2	-	-	8%	1%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Jordon Butts	CHB	1.0	-	-	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2.0

St Kilda

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	3+	4+	5+	6+	7+	ACTUAL
Hugo Garcia	INT	4.3	-	-	72%	56%	39%	24%	13%	5.0
Hunter Clark	INT	3.6	-	-	61%	42%	25%	13%	5%	1.0
Max Hall	C	3.3	-	-	56%	37%	21%	10%	4%	2.0
Rowan Marshall	FPR	3.2	-	-	54%	35%	19%	8%	3%	2.0
Sam Flanders	RR	2.8	-	-	46%	26%	12%	4%	1%	2.0
Hugh Boxshall	WL	2.7	-	-	44%	25%	11%	4%	1%	2.0
Marcus Windhager	R	2.5	-	-	40%	20%	8%	3%	1%	4.0
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera	HBFR	2.5	-	-	38%	20%	8%	2%	0%	3.0
Dan Butler	INT	2.4	-	-	36%	18%	7%	2%	0%	0.0
Mattaes Phillipou	INT	2.4	-	-	37%	19%	7%	2%	0%	3.0
Darcy Wilson	WR	2.1	-	-	28%	12%	4%	1%	0%	2.0
Jack Higgins	FPL	2.0	-	-	27%	11%	3%	1%	0%	1.0
Jack Sinclair	HBFL	2.0	-	-	26%	10%	3%	1%	0%	1.0
Liam Stocker	INT	1.9	-	-	23%	8%	2%	0%	0%	1.0
Mason Wood	HFFL	1.9	-	-	25%	9%	2%	0%	0%	3.0
Tom De Koning	RK	1.9	-	-	25%	10%	3%	0%	0%	0.0
Jack Silvagni	BPL	1.8	-	-	21%	7%	2%	0%	0%	1.0
Bradley Hill	CHB	1.7	-	-	20%	6%	1%	0%	0%	2.0
Jack Carroll	BPR	1.6	-	-	16%	5%	1%	0%	0%	2.0
Liam Ryan	CHF	1.6	-	-	16%	4%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Mitch Owens	HFFR	1.6	-	-	16%	5%	1%	0%	0%	4.0
Cooper Sharman	FF	1.5	-	-	14%	4%	1%	0%	0%	1.0
Callum Wilkie	FB	1.2	-	-	6%	1%	0%	0%	0%	2.0