Carlton v Collingwood

Thu 16 Apr 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIP

COL by 4

COL to win, 56% chance

CAR 44%56% COL

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

COL by 5

HIT Actual margin 5 · 0.6 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Carlton

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	15+	20+	25+	30+	35+	ACTUAL
Sam Walsh	R	28.7	-	-	100%	96%	78%	43%	14%	28.0
Patrick Cripps	C	25.2	-	-	99%	87%	54%	19%	4%	25.0
Adam Cerra	INT	24.4	-	-	98%	84%	48%	15%	2%	22.0
Nic Newman	HBFR	23.9	-	-	98%	82%	44%	13%	2%	24.0
Oliver Florent	HBFL	19.8	-	-	88%	51%	14%	2%	0%	23.0
Oliver Hollands	WL	19.2	-	-	86%	45%	11%	1%	0%	16.0
Zac Williams	RR	17.9	-	-	78%	34%	6%	0%	0%	26.0
Elijah Hollands	CHF	17.7	-	-	77%	32%	6%	0%	0%	1.0
Jagga Smith	HFFL	17.3	-	-	74%	29%	5%	0%	0%	20.0
Nick Haynes	BPR	16.2	-	-	65%	20%	2%	0%	0%	18.0
Lachlan Cowan	BPL	15.9	-	-	62%	18%	2%	0%	0%	20.0
Ben Ainsworth	HFFR	14.9	-	-	52%	12%	1%	0%	0%	19.0
Matthew Carroll	WR	14.5	-	-	48%	10%	1%	0%	0%	17.0
Harry McKay	FF	12.5	-	-	28%	3%	0%	0%	0%	12.0
Jacob Weitering	FB	12.5	-	-	27%	3%	0%	0%	0%	20.0
Will Hayward	FPL	12.4	-	-	26%	3%	0%	0%	0%	16.0
Francis Evans	INT	12.2	-	-	25%	2%	0%	0%	0%	10.0
Marc Pittonet	RK	12.0	-	-	23%	2%	0%	0%	0%	21.0
Mitch McGovern	CHB	11.3	-	-	17%	1%	0%	0%	0%	7.0
Harry Dean	INT	11.1	-	-	16%	1%	0%	0%	0%	13.0
Lewis Young	INT	10.4	-	-	10%	0%	0%	0%	0%	8.0
Brodie Kemp	FPR	9.7	-	-	7%	0%	0%	0%	0%	16.0
Talor Byrne	INT	8.9	-	-	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	8.0

Collingwood

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	15+	20+	25+	30+	35+	ACTUAL
Nick Daicos	INT	30.6	-	-	100%	98%	87%	57%	24%	39.0
Josh Daicos	HBFR	27.8	-	-	100%	95%	73%	36%	10%	26.0
Jack Crisp	INT	20.4	-	-	91%	56%	18%	3%	0%	21.0
Scott Pendlebury	C	20.3	-	-	91%	56%	18%	3%	0%	24.0
Dan Houston	INT	20.1	-	-	90%	54%	16%	2%	0%	25.0
Brayden Maynard	BPR	19.1	-	-	85%	45%	11%	1%	0%	18.0
Patrick Lipinski	INT	17.1	-	-	72%	27%	4%	0%	0%	27.0
Isaac Quaynor	HBFL	16.5	-	-	68%	23%	3%	0%	0%	11.0
Edward Allan	WR	15.9	-	-	62%	18%	2%	0%	0%	10.0
Ned Long	RR	15.4	-	-	58%	15%	2%	0%	0%	22.0
Harry Perryman	CHB	15.3	-	-	56%	14%	1%	0%	0%	27.0
Darcy Cameron	INT	15.2	-	-	55%	14%	1%	0%	0%	18.0
Lachie Schultz	HFFR	14.1	-	-	44%	8%	0%	0%	0%	14.0
Beau McCreery	HFFL	13.7	-	-	40%	6%	0%	0%	0%	15.0
Jeremy Howe	FB	12.6	-	-	28%	3%	0%	0%	0%	22.0
Roan Steele	WL	12.5	-	-	28%	3%	0%	0%	0%	18.0
Angus Anderson	R	10.9	-	-	14%	1%	0%	0%	0%	17.0
Billy Frampton	BPL	10.8	-	-	14%	1%	0%	0%	0%	14.0
Jamie Elliott	FF	10.1	-	-	9%	0%	0%	0%	0%	18.0
Oscar Steene	RK	9.9	-	-	8%	0%	0%	0%	0%	8.0
Tim Membrey	FPR	9.1	-	-	5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	9.0
William Hayes	CHF	8.9	-	-	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	6.0
Daniel McStay	FPL	8.5	-	-	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	7.0