AFL · ROUND 6 · MCG
Carlton v Collingwood
Thu 16 Apr 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
COL by 4
COL to win, 56% chance
CAR 44%56% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 5
HIT Actual margin 5 · 0.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 100 | - | - | 92% | 82% | 68% | 49% | 31% | 107 |
| Nic Newman | HBFR | 96 | - | - | 89% | 77% | 60% | 42% | 25% | 101 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 94 | - | - | 87% | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 81 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 90 | - | - | 83% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 17% | 84 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 78 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 62 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 76 | - | - | 61% | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 85 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 74 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 58 |
| Jagga Smith | HFFL | 73 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 64 |
| Elijah Hollands | CHF | 72 | - | - | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 3 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 72 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 92 |
| Zac Williams | RR | 72 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 103 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 67 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 67 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 75 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 64 | - | - | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 84 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 61 | - | - | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 83 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 60 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 55 |
| Will Hayward | FPL | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 68 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 58 | - | - | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 89 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 58 | - | - | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 54 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 73 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 47 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 43 |
| Harry Dean | INT | 45 | - | - | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 48 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 43 | - | - | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 50 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | INT | 101 | - | - | 93% | 84% | 70% | 52% | 34% | 128 |
| Josh Daicos | HBFR | 96 | - | - | 89% | 78% | 62% | 43% | 26% | 97 |
| Darcy Cameron | INT | 83 | - | - | 73% | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 108 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 81 | - | - | 70% | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 89 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 76 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 110 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 74 | - | - | 57% | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 85 |
| Scott Pendlebury | C | 73 | - | - | 56% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 88 |
| Ned Long | RR | 70 | - | - | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 87 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 68 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 79 |
| Patrick Lipinski | INT | 68 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 110 |
| Edward Allan | WR | 64 | - | - | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 55 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 63 | - | - | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 38 |
| Harry Perryman | CHB | 60 | - | - | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 114 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 59 | - | - | 29% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 74 |
| Angus Anderson | R | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 78 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 70 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 72 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 50 | - | - | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 40 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 50 | - | - | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 86 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 50 | - | - | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 71 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 48 | - | - | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 52 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 43 | - | - | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 71 |
| William Hayes | CHF | 43 | - | - | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 36 |