AFL · ROUND 6 · MCG
Carlton v Collingwood
Thu 16 Apr 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
COL by 4
COL to win, 56% chance
CAR 44%56% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 5
HIT Actual margin 5 · 0.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry McKay | FF | 1.8 | - | - | 84% | 55% | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Will Hayward | FPL | 1.4 | - | - | 74% | 40% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 1.2 | - | - | 70% | 34% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 1.2 | - | - | 69% | 32% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 1.0 | - | - | 62% | 25% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 1.0 | - | - | 64% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Elijah Hollands | CHF | 0.6 | - | - | 45% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jagga Smith | HFFL | 0.6 | - | - | 45% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zac Williams | RR | 0.6 | - | - | 47% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 0.5 | - | - | 42% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 0.4 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 0.4 | - | - | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 0.2 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 0.2 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Harry Dean | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 0.0 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 1.6 | - | - | 80% | 48% | 22% | 8% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 1.4 | - | - | 75% | 40% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 1.2 | - | - | 71% | 36% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 1.0 | - | - | 62% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nick Daicos | INT | 0.8 | - | - | 53% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 45% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| William Hayes | CHF | 0.6 | - | - | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Angus Anderson | R | 0.5 | - | - | 41% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 0.5 | - | - | 40% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 0.4 | - | - | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Edward Allan | WR | 0.3 | - | - | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ned Long | RR | 0.3 | - | - | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | C | 0.2 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Daicos | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | -0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Harry Perryman | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |