AFL · ROUND 6 · MCG
Carlton v Collingwood
Thu 16 Apr 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
COL by 4
COL to win, 56% chance
CAR 44%56% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 5
HIT Actual margin 5 · 0.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 6.5 | - | - | 89% | 78% | 64% | 48% | 33% | 9.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFR | 6.2 | - | - | 87% | 75% | 59% | 43% | 29% | 6.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 5.9 | - | - | 84% | 70% | 53% | 37% | 24% | 5.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 47% | 31% | 19% | 5.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 4.8 | - | - | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 11% | 3.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 4.8 | - | - | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 11% | 6.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 45% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 8.0 |
| Will Hayward | FPL | 4.4 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 5.0 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 4.3 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 4.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 8.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 6.0 |
| Elijah Hollands | CHF | 3.7 | - | - | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 0.0 |
| Harry Dean | INT | 3.7 | - | - | 50% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 5.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 3.6 | - | - | 50% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 3.4 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 3.4 | - | - | 43% | 25% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Jagga Smith | HFFL | 3.1 | - | - | 36% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 7.0 |
| Zac Williams | RR | 2.6 | - | - | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 2.1 | - | - | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Talor Byrne | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 1.2 | - | - | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 47% | 31% | 19% | 6.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 5.0 | - | - | 73% | 56% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 9.0 |
| Josh Daicos | HBFR | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 12% | 8.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 4.8 | - | - | 71% | 53% | 36% | 22% | 12% | 10.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 4.8 | - | - | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4.0 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 4.5 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 12.0 |
| Harry Perryman | CHB | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 11.0 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 4.1 | - | - | 59% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 7.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | INT | 4.0 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 7.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | INT | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 6.0 |
| Edward Allan | WR | 3.8 | - | - | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 3.8 | - | - | 54% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 8.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 3.7 | - | - | 51% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 3.4 | - | - | 45% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Nick Daicos | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 6.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | C | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 6.0 |
| Angus Anderson | R | 2.8 | - | - | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 2.4 | - | - | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 6.0 |
| William Hayes | CHF | 2.4 | - | - | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 2.3 | - | - | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Ned Long | RR | 2.0 | - | - | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 1.9 | - | - | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |