AFL · ROUND 6 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Western Bulldogs
Fri 17 Apr 2026, 7:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 6
GEE to win, 58% chance
GEE 58%42% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 75
HIT Actual margin 75 · 69.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 33.1 | - | - | 100% | 99% | 94% | 73% | 39% | 33.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 31.8 | - | - | 100% | 99% | 90% | 65% | 30% | 28.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 23.0 | - | - | 97% | 76% | 37% | 9% | 1% | 16.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 22.2 | - | - | 96% | 71% | 30% | 7% | 1% | 15.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 21.5 | - | - | 94% | 66% | 25% | 5% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 21.3 | - | - | 94% | 64% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 17.9 | - | - | 78% | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 27.0 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 17.0 | - | - | 72% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 16.5 | - | - | 68% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFR | 16.5 | - | - | 68% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 25.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | HFFR | 16.3 | - | - | 66% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 15.0 | - | - | 53% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 14.9 | - | - | 52% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | HBFL | 14.4 | - | - | 47% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 13.9 | - | - | 42% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | WR | 13.1 | - | - | 34% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | BPL | 12.5 | - | - | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Sam De Koning | CHB | 12.2 | - | - | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | CHF | 11.3 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Jack Martin | INT | 10.7 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 10.6 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Oliver Henry | FPR | 10.3 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 10.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 26.7 | - | - | 100% | 92% | 65% | 29% | 7% | 14.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | INT | 24.8 | - | - | 99% | 86% | 51% | 17% | 3% | 13.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 24.7 | - | - | 99% | 85% | 50% | 17% | 3% | 27.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 23.6 | - | - | 98% | 80% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 30.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 23.5 | - | - | 98% | 79% | 40% | 11% | 2% | 29.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 20.7 | - | - | 92% | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 25.0 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 18.6 | - | - | 83% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 18.0 | - | - | 79% | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 26.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | INT | 17.2 | - | - | 73% | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 15.6 | - | - | 60% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 15.0 | - | - | 54% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 14.2 | - | - | 45% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 12.9 | - | - | 32% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 12.0 | - | - | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 11.4 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 11.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 10.9 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Will Lewis | INT | 10.9 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 9.9 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 9.8 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 9.8 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 9.6 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Louis Emmett | RK | 9.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |