AFL · ROUND 6 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Western Bulldogs
Fri 17 Apr 2026, 7:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 6
GEE to win, 58% chance
GEE 58%42% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 75
HIT Actual margin 75 · 69.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 6.6 | - | - | 90% | 79% | 65% | 49% | 34% | 10.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 6.4 | - | - | 88% | 76% | 62% | 46% | 31% | 2.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFR | 6.3 | - | - | 88% | 76% | 60% | 44% | 30% | 7.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 6.2 | - | - | 86% | 74% | 58% | 42% | 28% | 1.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 5.6 | - | - | 81% | 65% | 48% | 33% | 20% | 7.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | BPL | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 41% | 26% | 15% | 2.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 60% | 42% | 27% | 16% | 8.0 |
| Sam De Koning | CHB | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 41% | 26% | 15% | 7.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.5 | - | - | 67% | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 8.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 4.5 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 5.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 4.5 | - | - | 66% | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 3.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 4.2 | - | - | 60% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 6.0 |
| Jack Martin | INT | 4.1 | - | - | 59% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 9.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 3.9 | - | - | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 6.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | HFFR | 3.9 | - | - | 54% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Jack Bowes | INT | 3.7 | - | - | 51% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 6.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | HBFL | 3.7 | - | - | 52% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Oliver Henry | FPR | 3.7 | - | - | 50% | 31% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | WR | 3.4 | - | - | 45% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | CHF | 3.0 | - | - | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 2.4 | - | - | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 1.9 | - | - | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Williams | WR | 5.4 | - | - | 79% | 63% | 46% | 30% | 18% | 8.0 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 5.4 | - | - | 78% | 62% | 45% | 29% | 17% | 4.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | INT | 5.0 | - | - | 73% | 56% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 2.0 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 5.0 | - | - | 74% | 56% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 5.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 44% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 3.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 4.4 | - | - | 64% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 4.3 | - | - | 62% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 4.1 | - | - | 59% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 0.0 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 4.1 | - | - | 59% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 3.9 | - | - | 56% | 36% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 3.7 | - | - | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 5.0 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 3.5 | - | - | 45% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 7.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 2.9 | - | - | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 2.8 | - | - | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 2.8 | - | - | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Will Lewis | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 2.5 | - | - | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 2.4 | - | - | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Louis Emmett | RK | 1.8 | - | - | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |